Andreas Nodl is now seen as a defensively responsible forward, but there are at least 5 reasons why he is not the scoring winger he was expected to be.
Sep 9, 2010 - After grading Andreas Nodl's 2009-2010 season with the Flyers, a reader remarked that Nodl is an easily replaceable player. While that is certainly a fair opinion and one that is difficult to disagree with, it was the claim that Nodl has already been given a shot at making the NHL and failed that got me thinking: is that true?
The Flyers selected Nodl in the second-round in 2006 after he put up 59 points in 58 games in the United States Hockey League. After that, he went to St. Cloud State where he scored 90 points in 80 games. Basically, before turning pro, Nodl was a scorer, averaging more than a point per game for three straight years. Once his sophomore year of college was over, he played in three games for the Phantoms, scoring one goal.
Entering the 2008-09 season, Nodl was expected to play a fairly large role on the Phantoms. With guys like Jared Ross, Jon Matsumoto, Patrick Maroon, David Laliberte, and Claude Giroux entering the year on their roster, Nodl was expected to battle them for playing time. Using Gabe Desjardins' NHL Equivalencies, Nodl would have been expected to score 20 goals and add 29 assists over an 82-game season in the AHL. That still would have placed him behind all those players, which shows just how difficult it is to jump from the NCAA to the pros.
Rather than make the transition to the pro game in the AHL, Nodl only played 5 games for the Phantoms - scoring 3 points - before being called up to the Flyers. Then, this is how his season went: 22 games with the Flyers; 2 games with the Phantoms; 1 game with the Flyers; 5 games with the Phantoms; 4 games with the Flyers; 18 games with the Phantoms; 2 games with the Flyers; 9 games with the Phantoms; and 7 games with the Flyers.
Yes, Nodl never got more than 18 consecutive games in the AHL. His entire season was spent shuttling back and forth between the AHL and the NHL, switching leagues ten times throughout the year. Only once after December 6th - his 19th NHL game and 27th professional game - did Nodl receive more than eleven and a half minutes of ice time in the NHL.
This is what constitutes a player's shot to make the NHL? I strongly disagree. Instead, this is but one of many reasons Nodl is better than his NHL numbers suggest.
Reason #1: He spent his entire rookie year bouncing between the AHL and NHL.
This is what we just covered. Ten times over the course of the year, Nodl changed teams. His longest stretch with the same team was in October, when he was called up to the NHL with only eight AHL games played. By constantly being sent down and called up, Nodl was unable to gain any chemistry with his linemates or work through the growing pains of becoming a professional hockey player. He was called up and expected to produce, and when he didn't - which we'll get to later - he was sent down. Stability goes a long way for young players, something Nodl didn't have. This is even more important since...
Reason #2: He wasn't prepared for the professional game, let alone the NHL.
As if things weren't tough enough for a player in their first professional year, Nodl was coming out of college - having only played 40 games the year before - after his sophomore season. For perspective, James van Riemsdyk just did the same thing. As a #2 overall draft pick, it's safe to say expectations were a lot different with van Riemsdyk, but when he had only two points in a 21-game stretch from the end of November into January, he wasn't sent down. On top of that, van Riemsdyk earned his NHL job in training camp. Nodl didn't earn a spot, but was rather thrown into the NHL.
While this isn't meant to bash college hockey - since it is also difficult to jump from Major Juniors to the NHL - when looking at van Riemsdyk in comparison to his draft peers, we see that those who played college hockey were less prepared for the NHL than those who played in Major Juniors. The reason for this isn't exactly clear, but I'm willing to bet the increased workload (~40 games in NCAA, ~70 games in Major Juniors) has something to do with it. So when Nodl goes from playing 40 games against Colorado College and Denver University to playing 82 games against the Penguins and Capitals, one understands why he might be a bit overwhelmed. And yet he wasn't helped out by his teammates because...
Reason #3: Despite having good teammates, they were slumping at the same time.
Now, it is true that Nodl spent nearly 25% of his even-strength ice time with Jeff Carter and Scott Hartnell that year, more than any other duo. In fact, nearly 40% of Nodl's ice time came with Jeff Carter also on the ice. One would think this was an excellent opportunity to produce for Nodl, but when Jeff Carter isn't scoring, that opportunity doesn't look as good.
When Nodl and Carter were on the ice together, the Flyers recorded 98 shots on goal. Only one of them went in. That's good for a 1.02% shooting percentage. For a frame of reference, that same year, 9.5% of the shots fired when Carter was on the ice went in. So, Nodl played 29 games with Jeff Carter, and the duo only scored one goal on 98 shots. That is a ratio that could not possibly be sustained over the course of a year, yet this is a big reason why people think Nodl failed in his NHL opportunity. Instead...
Reason #4: He was simply unlucky.
Adding to the previous reason - one goal on 98 shots is pretty unlucky - is the fact that Nodl fell victim to poor luck over a short stretch. Every athlete goes through a cold streak, whether it be van Riemsdyk, Ryan Howard, or Cole Hamels. It happens. The important thing to remember is that these stretches are identifiable and reversible.
So how does this apply to Nodl? Well, in college, Nodl had a 16.5% shooting percentage over 80 games. In the AHL during the 2008-09 season, he had a 10.5% shooting percentage. This past year, he had a 17.9% shooting percentage for the Phantoms. But in the NHL, his shooting percentage is under 3.0%. Simply put, Andreas Nodl is a much better shooter than his NHL numbers suggest. But he won't be able to prove that because...
Reason #5: After an unlucky 38 games, Nodl was forced to change his style of play.
After being given a chance to play with Carter in 08-09 with moderate success - they outshot their opposition and ended their shifts in the offensive zone more often than they started in it - Nodl has been asked to completely change his style of play. He is no longer being asked to score, whether it be for the Flyers or Phantoms. Instead, the organization is now asking for him to focus on his defense and board play.
Maybe that's a smart move - it allows him to be an injury call-up with lowered expectations - but it's this decision that indicates the team is giving up on Nodl's scoring touch. With the acquisition of Stefan Legein and the emergence of David Laliberte, Nodl doesn't have to be the scorer in the AHL. But that doesn't mean he can't be a scorer. If Nodl had taken the same amount of shots this past year as the year before and maintained his shooting percentage from the year, he would have scored 17 goals in 65 games. Clearly, the ability to score is there. Compare that to Laliberte's 18 goals in 66 games and you see that Nodl wasn't given a reduced role due to performance. Instead, he's producing at the same rate despite not being given the opportunity to excel in that role.
Conclusion
Andreas Nodl is the victim of circumstance, bad luck, and opportunity. He was called up too early, wasn't given a chance to gain confidence due to being moved around far too much, and was incredibly unlucky in terms of shooting percentages. Then the team decided he isn't a scorer and asked him to change his game.
The good news is that he has proven himself in the new role. Should the Flyers need a penalty-killing specialist this year, Nodl is that guy. The bad news is that he could have been a solid scoring winger in the NHL. Maybe he still will be, but he's unlikely to find that opportunity in Philadelphia since his contract is up after this season.
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Comments
Nodl played well this year when he got called up. If he could turn into a Powe with more of a scoring touch and less speed I’d be just fine with that. However, I have this bad feeling that he’ll be dealt for someone that fizzles out after a month and end up killing a crucial penalty when he plays us for the first time.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Sep 9, 2010 9:27 PM EDT reply actions
I worry more about him becoming a mini-Patrick Sharp. Yeah, Nodl doesn’t appear to be as talented as Sharp, but I think all Nodl needs is an opportunity in the NHL to prove his talent. I see no reason why Nodl can’t score 20 goals in the NHL in 2 years.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 9, 2010 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m worried about him becoming a Patrick Sharp too…like I said being traded for someone who fizzles and then ends up kicking our ass…maybe winning a cup.
Also, do you mean he’ll score 20 goals in the 2013 season or that he’ll score 20 goals over two years?
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Sep 9, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
20 goals in 2012-13.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 9, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s bull that college leaves you less prepared than junior. … The problem for Nodl is that he was stupid enough to leave school after just two years. In college, he was known as a no-defense, floater … he didn’t stay to get stronger and learn the defensive side of the game.
By contrast, Van Riemsdyk, despite enormous pressure from the Flyers – decided to stay for his second year of school when everyone wanted him out. By doing so, he got stronger, more prepared, and learned an all-around game that helped him just straight to the NHL.
Don’t blame college – blame Nodl and the Flyers. He should’ve stayed in school, gotten stronger, learned some defense first.
by Arbourisgod on Sep 9, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions
Wait, so he shouldn’t have left after just two years but you praise JVR for staying for a second year? Also, no offense to St. Cloud State but they’re not UNH, and I don’t know a lot about college hockey but do they play as tough of teams as UNH does?
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Sep 9, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I wasn’t blaming college, but if you look at players who jumped straight from college to the NHL and compare them to players who jumped straight from Major Juniors to the NHL, you see a pretty large disparity in performance.
And like I said, a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that a Juniors season is nearly twice as long as a college one. So no, I’m not blaming college.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 9, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you making the argument that the reason for Nodl’s disappointing 09-10 AHL season was an organization-mandated change in playing style? Do you have any proof of this? Because that would seem to be a foolish decision, considering the lack of scoring wingers left in the system. It would also be very hard to prove. Just because the organization is telling Nodl to improve on his defense and board work does not necessarily mean that they are telling him to neglect his offense. I don’t know if there’s any AHL stats that would take into account zone starts, but I guess that would help to see if there’s actually been a shift in Nodl’s utilization.
It just seems to me that you’re being a bit optimistic when it comes to Nodl. The fact is, his NHL equivalency from 09-10 was pretty poor (8 G, 11 A, 19 PTS) and doesn’t seem to show a player just waiting to break out once he hits the NHL again. He was 22 and not even scoring 20 goals in the AHL. At the same age, Patrick Sharp was putting up far superior AHL numbers (.49 GPG at age 22, .31 GPG at age 23).
As for the shooting percentage argument, a few things jumped out at me. First, you mention that Nodl had a 17.9% shooting percentage last season for the Phantoms, and state that if he had simply shot more, his numbers would have been more impressive. That number shocked me, because it seemed very high. So I looked at the shooting percentages in the NHL in 09-10, and it turns out, Nodl’s 17.9% would have been good for 9th-best in the entire league. It seems likely to me that Nodl got a bit lucky this past season on his shooting percentage, and will regress back closer to the 10.5% he put up in 08-09. I’m unconvinced that Nodl has that rare ability to repeat a high shooting percentage.
Second, combining his high shooting percentage from 09-10 and his high shot quantity from 08-09 seems a bit like cherry-picking. You’re basically giving the absolute best-case scenario for a Nodl minor league season. I have no proof of this, but it’s very possible that Nodl’s shooting percentage went up in 09-10 because he was taking less shots. Maybe, instead of throwing everything at the net, he picked his spots more carefully.
Overall, I like Nodl. He forechecks well and plays responsible defense. He’s a great injury call-up guy because he plays an intelligent game and doesn’t hurt the team. And the argument that he simply got unlucky in 08-09 during his time with the Flyers is also very convincing. He’s certainly better than the guy who’s scored only one goal in 48 NHL games.
But I wouldn’t worry too much about him becoming the next Patrick Sharp.
by cocon1120 on Sep 10, 2010 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
No, I’m not making that argument.
I’m not saying he’s just waiting to break out, I’m saying he could have easily been a 3rd line winger in the NHL by now if those 5 things didn’t happen.
At age 19 and age 20, Nodl was outscoring Sharp at the NCAA level. Then, the Flyers bumped him from NCAA to NHL. Saying that his unlucky stretch in the NHL didn’t affect his game is something even a stats guy like me wouldn’t say. Confidence goes a long way for a 21 year old kid in the NHL. Nodl didn’t have that.
So if Nodl is the better college player, but Sharp is the better AHL player, maybe that’s because Sharp played 88 AHL games before playing his 4th NHL game. Nodl played his 22nd NHL game before playing his 6th AHL game. That’s a huge difference.
You have a good point here, except you then compare AHL shooting percentages to NHL shooting percentages. For example, Stefan Legein had a 16.99% shooting percentage last year. Are both of those numbers high? Definitely. But the point is that Nodl has been a 10% shooter at every level of play, then is a 3% shooter in the NHL. His true talent is definitely closer to 10%, as you suggest.
Should I have specified that 17% is as much of an outlier as 3%? Definitely.
This is entirely correct. The problem is that Nodl went from 1.46 shots per game to 1.2. He didn’t have an incredibly high shot quantity the year before. Of the top 6 scorers on the Phantoms last year (Nodl was 6th), only Legein took fewer than 2 shots per game. And he took 1.98.
So, you’re right, I shouldn’t have transferred a high shooting percentage to a different year and say it would have happened. But as the next sentenced suggested, I used it to show he has the ability to score. Looking at how often he shoots, and how often he succeeds tells you that he can still be a scorer. The problem is that he isn’t taking shots, even in a year where he has a really high percentage.
Could his shooting percentage have been high because of shot selection? Certainly. But for someone with that high of a shooting percentage to only take 1.2 shots a game is perplexing and points toward a coaching decision, not a player with little offensive skill.
This is probably good advice, I just can’t help but look at the talent Nodl clearly has. Sharp didn’t get an opportunity to excel in Philadelphia (15 points in 63 NHL games) and neither has Nodl (5 points in 48 NHL games). But looking at NHL Equivalencies, after the lockout, Sharp was expected to score 11 goals and 14 assists. This year, Nodl would be expected to score 8 goals and 11 assists. Seeing as how Nodl was a better college player than Sharp, I’m still worried that he only needs confidence to make up those 6 points over 82 games.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 10, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a site that keeps track of shot totals in college? I’m interested to see if Nodl shot the puck significantly more in college, from a rate standpoint.
If he did, then maybe he just needs to be let loose. But if his rates in college and the pros are similar, maybe Nodl’s style of play just isn’t conducive to taking a lot of shots.
by cocon1120 on Sep 10, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I went on the St. Cloud State website (I linked to it in the article) and found his career stats, which show he took 218 shots in 80 games, or 2.7 per game. Obviously, like you said earlier, his 16.5% shooting percentage is probably not sustainable. But couple that with his 17.9% shooting percentage when only taking 1.2 shots per game shows that he has talent, whether he’s the focal point of the offense or a defensive-oriented forward.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 10, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, just to clarify, I wasn’t saying that his 17.9% in the AHL was equivalent to a 17.9% in the NHL. I was just making the point that it’s a fairly high percentage, and would be difficult for anyone to sustain, period.
I don’t doubt Nodl could develop into a useful player. He does have ability, and the drastic drop in shots taken from college to the pros is interesting to say the least. It could mean that he’s finding it more difficult to create his shot at the higher level, or it could mean, as you suggest, that he’s not being used at the highest efficiency level possible. I feel like the truth is probably somewhere in between.
But I’m not concerned about him developing into a Sharp-level player, mainly because Sharp himself was a pretty big outlier. Looking at his minor league numbers and his age, Sharp’s rapid development into a top-six forward was surprising, to say the least. His eventual breakout was the exception, not the rule.
At this point, he’s a bit of a tweener – not quite defensively-savvy enough to be a specialist on the 4th line, but not offensively-inclined enough to stake out a role in the top nine. It probably would help his development most if the coaching staff in Adirondack gave him top line time and told him to play an offensive-oriented game. At least we’d know what we have in the guy.
by cocon1120 on Sep 10, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I would agree with most if not all of that.
The point though, is that Nodl is better than most people think. Looking at what he’s done would make people think he has no skill, but in reality, he does. It’s a matter of why that skill isn’t translating into points. To me, there are a combination of things to blame – the organization, luck, confidence, coaching, etc. – before the player gets written off.
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by Geoffrey Detweiler on Sep 10, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
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