PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 7: Jason Babin #93 of the Philadelphia Eagles is introduced before the game against the Chicago Bears at Lincoln Financial Field on November 7, 2011 in Phildelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
It's not yet Thanksgiving, but there is NFL football on Thursday night anyway. NFL Network begins its Thursday slate of games this week, which means at least for Oakland at San Diego game, you've got to get your bets in early.
It's not yet Thanksgiving, but there is NFL football on Thursday night anyway. NFL Network begins its Thursday slate of games this week, which means at least for Oakland at San Diego game, you've got to get your bets in early. And it just may be that from a betting perspective, this Thursday night could be the most interesting of the week. San Diego opened at 6.5 points favorites and we've see that line move up this week. That's a significant move as well, from 6.5 to 7. That half point is going to send a lot of people the other direction with their money.
The other big movers this week were the Jaguars and Jets. Both originally opened as underdogs more than a week ago, but are now favorites over the Colts and Pats respectively.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7) - I'd set the over/under for picks in this game at 4. Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers are turning the ball over like mad, which makes this game incredibly unpredictable. For that reason, I actually think this line is very high. The talent level of these two teams is pretty even, so 7 points is a lot. The trends agree. Teams like Oakland have covered 70% of the time in similar games. Pick: Raiders
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+1) - This should be a really good one and the line reflects that. The trends are split right down the middle so this is really a gut kind of pick. In those cases I usually lean toward the home team. Pick: Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinatti Bengals (+3) - The Bengals finally get the big test we've all been waiting for. They are home dogs, but the trends pretty much all favor the Steelers to not only win but also cover. The simulator predicts a 4 points Steelers win. Pick: Steelers
St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) - The Rams are playing the second of back to back road games against a team that's just better than they are, which is why it's odd that this line is only 2.5. You'd think Cleveland would at least get that home team 3 points. So I really like the Browns here and the trends unanimously agree. Pick: Browns
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) - I was surprised by what the trends had to say here. They're unanimously in favor of a Bills road cover against the Cowboys. In fact, teams like the Bills have covered 62.5% of the time in games with this spread. Pick: Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3) - The Jaguars aren't very good and on they're on the road, so it's a bit of a surprise to see them favored here. But then again, it should go to show how little faith anyone has in the Colts. The trends actually favor the Jags here quite heavily.. Pick: Jags
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) - It's somewhat of a surprise to see that the trends favor the Broncos to cover here on the road. This is a rough game because Denver obviously can't be trusted, while no team in the NFL seems to vary performances more than KC. While the trends do favor Denver as I said, it's only slightly. Teams like the Broncos have covered in 10 out of 19 similar games, so it's not a strong indication. Pick: Chiefs
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4) - Trends are split right down the middle on this one, so it's really a gut pick. For me, it's not that hard. The Dolphins are really playing well over these last couple weeks and the Redskins have been atrocious. I like Miami quite a bit. Pick: Dolphins
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) - Houston is playing as well as anyone over these past few weeks, but it's a surprise to see a decent team like Tampa be a great than three point home dog. That said, the trends in Houston's favor. Teams like them have covered 67% of the time when favored by 3.5 on the road. Pick: Texans
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) -The trends like Carolina here and I'd tend to agree. The Titans have been trending the wrong direction and the Panthers have been improving. They're top 10 in both passing and rushing while also being soild against the pass. Their one big weakness is their 27th ranked run defense, but they'll be facing the league's worst rushing attack this Sunday. Pick: Panthers
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) - Seattle is a tough place to play and many times good teams have gone up there as big favorites only to lose or at least not cover. So it shouldn't be a shock that the trends are unanimously in favor of the Seahawks to cover here. It's not particularly strong in any of the four models, but they all do say Seahawks. There are other factors too. The Ravens are playing the second of back to back games and this could be a trap game for them after their emotional win over Pittsburgh. Still... Pick: Ravens
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5) - I see this as a bit of disrespect to the Bears here. They played really well on the road in Philly last week and they' don't even get the home team 3 points here against the Lions. And let's not forget that the Lions have lost 2 of 3, with both defeats being against NFC contenders. They did beat the Bears five weeks ago however. Trends are split on this one. Pick: Bears
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) -This is probably the best matchup of the week, but the trends don't necessarily see it as a close one. They're heavily in favor the 49ers here. Much like the Ravens, the Giants are coming off a big emotional win, playing back to back road games and are an east coast team traveling to the west coast. Unlike the Ravens though, the Giants are playing a good team. Pick: Giants
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1) - The trends surprised me here more than any other game this week. They heavily favor the Jets. In similar games, the Jets have covered 75% of the time. And it makes intuitive sense as well. The Jets have really played better over the last month while the Pats have looked worse and worse. The Jets should be at least 3 point favorites here. Pick: Jets
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13) - This is the biggest line of the week and we've got a killer stat about this one. In 7 similar games with a spread of 13, teams like the Vikings are 7-0 against the spread. Pick: Vikings