NHL Power Rankings Week 23: Down the Stretch They Come

This week, Buffalo's surge begins to appear while San Jose's return to the top of the Pacific coincides with a rise here.

The Power Ranking Rating is arrived at through a formula which includes the teams' adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime, regardless of outcome, count for one point) and Score-Adjusted Fenwick. The two are weighted, giving strong preference to Score-Adjusted Fenwick, while also factoring in how successful a team has been at winning games in 60 minutes.

At the end is each team's magic number - the number of games they must win to clinch a playoff berth - according to playoffstatus.com.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
Penguins_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Penguins_medium" />	1	1	The Penguins are going to have to wait until the summer to fil their need for a backup goalie. (Clinched)	1.040
Rangers_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Rangers_medium" />	2	2	New York realizes how important it is to win the Atlantic, if for no other reason than avoiding the Flyers in the first round. (Clinched)	1.032
	3	3	The Flyers are going to be without Ilya Bryzgalov, who has a bone chip in his foot. But it's supposedly not serious. (Clinched)	0.998
Bruins_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Bruins_medium" />	4	4	Boston is creating a mock-80s sitcom revolving around their mascot. The preview looks amazing. (Magic Number - 1)	0.954
Senators_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513675/Senators_medium.png" />	5	5	The Senators, despite having a very good year, can't stop marveling at former-goalie Brian Elliott. (Magic Number - 4)	0.867
Panthers_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752407/Panthers_medium.png" />	6	6	Florida offered Jason Garrison $2.5 million, but he rejected it. Is he worth $4 million per? He thinks so. (Magic Number - 3)	0.864
Devils_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Devils_medium" />	7	8	The Devils are debating whether they should give up their 1st round pick as part of their Kovalchuk punishment this year. (Magic Number - 2)	0.845
Capitals_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513703/Capitals_medium.png" />	8	7	Washington came out flat against Buffalo in a battle for 8th place, losing 5-1. (Tragic Number - 5)	0.838
Sabres_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Sabres_medium" />	9	11	The Sabres have come all the way back and are now in control of their own playoff destiny. (Magic Number - 5)	0.800
Jets_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Jets_medium" />	10	9	Winnipeg is just the latest team struggling to understand why Randy Jones continues to get ice time. (Tragic Number - 3)	0.790
Hurricanes_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Hurricanes_medium" />	11	10	The Hurricanes need Jeff Skinner to stay on the ice and out of the box. (Tragic Number - 1)	0.769
Lightning_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752411/Lightning_medium.png" />	12	12	Tampa Bay won the J.T. Brown sweepstakes, but he's going to be a free agent again next summer. (Tragic Number - 2)	0.739
	13	13	The Maple Leafs appear to already have checked out, which makes sense since they're eliminated. (Eliminated)	0.698
Islanders_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513651/Islanders_medium.png" />	14	14	New York is taking an early look at who they could target in the draft. Can't blame them. (Eliminated)	0.692
Canadiens_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513719/Canadiens_medium.png" />	15	15	The Canadiens have a 90% chance of getting a top-3 pick this year. What are they going to do with it? (Eliminated)	0.663

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Blues no longer have a spot for B.J. Crombeen. Looking at his fall. (Clinched)	1.149
	2	2	Detroit has a truly amazing player in Pavel Datsyuk. Even his interviews are fantastic. (Clinched)	1.054
Canucks_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513755/Canucks_medium.png" />	3	3	The Canucks are asking their fans not to riot. This is both good and sad. (Clinched)	1.033
	4	4	Chicago lost Duncan Keith for 5 games as a result of his elbow to the head of Daniel Sedin. (Magic Number - 2)	0.960
	5	7	The Sharks are going from out of the playoffs to division leaders after what seems like each game. (Magic Number - 4)	0.896
Predators_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752447/Predators_medium.png" />	6	5	Nashville is benefiting from Maritn Erat's great, possibly even career, year. (Clinched)	0.887
Kings_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752464/Kings_medium.png" />	7	6	The Kings still have a difficult path ahead of themselves. (Magic Number - 5)	0.884
	8	8	Dallas doesn't miss Nicklas Grossmann, arguing that they have actually improved since trading him. (Magic Number - 4)	0.843
Coyotes_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513787/Coyotes_medium.png" />	9	9	The Coyotes are getting Shane Doan back for the final stretch of games. (Magic Number - 5)	0.823
	10	10	Calgary is going to use the rest of this season as a snapshot of their recent, poor history. (Tragic Number - 4)	0.810
Avalanche_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513767/Avalanche_medium.png" />	11	11	The Avalanche have retained their GM and their coach for next season. (Tragic Number - 4)	0.788
	12	12	Anaheim is asking whether Teemu Selanne will play one more year. Teemu Selanne should play one more year. (Tragic Number - 1)	0.736
	13	13	The Oilers lost Taylor Hall to shoulder surgery, an injury he has had for years. (Eliminated)	0.665
	14	14	Minnesota is looking at a high draft pick again. (Eliminated)	0.598
	15	15	The Blue Jackets finally signed a goalie! Shawn Hunwick went from Michigan to backup NHL goalie the same day. (Eliminated)	0.503

NHL Power Rankings Week 22: Pittsburgh Is Really, Really Good

This week, Pittsburgh jumps to the top of the East as Boston plummets. No, it's not the Sidney Crosby effect. It's the Score-Adjusted Fenwick.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T, and incorporated in the Power Ranking Rating.

The Power Ranking Rating is arrived at through a formula which includes the teams' adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime, regardless of outcome, count for one point) and Score-Adjusted Fenwick. The two are weighted, giving strong preference to Score-Adjusted Fenwick, while also factoring in how successful a team has been at winning games in 60 minutes.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	3	The Penguins...Sidney Crosby! Really, that's it. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.045
	2	2	New York clinched a playoff berth, the first team in the East to do so. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.031
	3	4	The Flyers lost Andrej Meszaros to back surgery, ending his season. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.010
	4	1	Boston beat Toronto 8-0. Yeah, it was bad. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	0.942
	5	5	The Senators are getting great production out of Ben Bishop, making his acquisition one of the best of the deadline. (Playoff Probability 94.4%)	0.876
	6	9	Florida is once again receiving solid goaltending, something they've had their entire existence. (Playoff Probability 96.3%)	0.869
	7	6	The Capitals are crashing the net, and Mathieu Perreault is one of the biggest culprits. (Playoff Probability 65.6%)	0.842
	8	7	New Jersey didn't quite get the Enforcer aspect right. (Playoff Probability 99.7%)	0.841
	9	8	The Jets have one of the largest home/road splits of anyone in awhile. (Playoff Probability 23.5%)	0.813
	10	12	Carolina lost Jeff Skinner to a suspension for kicking. Yup. (Playoff Probability 0.4%)	0.767
	11	11	The Sabres lost Tyler Myers to a suspension for boarding. (Playoff Probability 19.2%)	0.752
	12	10	Tampa Bay is going through injuries, but they have clearly defined jobs for their call-ups. (Playoff Probability 0.5%)	0.736
	13	13	The Maple Leafs are a sad, sad bunch. But they provide some solid humor, like this video parody. (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.724
	14	15	New York is a bad franchise. This much is obvious. But Larry Brooks doesn't really know why this is true. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.675
	15	14	The Canadiens are revisiting whether letting Saku Koivu go and acquiring Scott Gomez was a smart move. It wasn't. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.670

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Blues lost to the Hurricanes, which is bad. But haikus always cheer people up! (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.154
	2	1	Detroit is going to be without Jimmy Howard again. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.034
	3	3	The Canucks may be better than last year's version. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.014
	4	6	Chicago is getting solid production out of Patrick Sharp and Viktor Stalberg. (Playoff Probability 98.8%)	0.951
	5	5	The Predators are getting Alexander Radulov soon. He's already in the States. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	0.902
	6	9	Los Angeles does not have an easy road to the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 59.3%)	0.893
	7	4	The Sharks are looking closely at themselves to see why they are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. (Playoff Probability 65.9%)	0.887
	8	8	Dallas got Sheldon Souray and Radek Dvorak back from injury. They rejoiced. (Playoff Probability 70.4%)	0.858
	9	7	The Coyotes have had their share of troubles lately, including giving up early goals. (Playoff Probability 45.4%)	0.831
	10	11	Calgary is questioning whether Jarome Iginla is worthy of a Hart Trophy nomination. (Playoff Probability 15.6%)	0.808
	11	10	The Avalanche want heart over skill. This is supposedly a winning formula. (Playoff Probability 44.7%)	0.798
	12	12	Anaheim still offers a few reasons to keep watching. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.740
	13	13	The Oilers are once again playing spoilers in the West. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.634
	14	14	Minnesota is not happy Ryan Kesler avoided a suspension for clipping Cal Clutterbuck. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.622
	15	15	The Blue Jackets are going to be without Curtis Sanford and James Wismiewski again, and neither injury sounds good. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.513

NHL Power Rankings Week 21: A Shuffle Atop the East

This week, the top four in the East shuffled amongst themselves while the Sharks continue to rank highly here but remain on the playoff bubble.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T. As you’ll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Bruins just passed the one year anniversary of the day Marc Savard's life changed. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.098
	2	1	New York is starting to get what they paid for out of Brad Richards. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.088
	3	4	The Penguins look to get Sidney Crosby back, and thoughts of Malkin/Crosby/Staal has fans excited. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.036
	4	3	Philadelphia is looking at yet another college free agent, J.T. Brown. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.015
	5	5	The Senators are almost guaranteed a playoff spot, yet they still can't help looking ahead toward the draft. (Playoff Probability 95.8%)	0.959
	6	6	Washington lost Mike Green to a 3 game suspension. (Playoff Probability 62.0%)	0.959
	7	8	The Devils may have the Calder Trophy winner in Adam Henrique. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	0.935
	8	7	Winnipeg is starting to love Tanner Glass. It should be contagious. (Playoff Probability 30.3%)	0.913
	9	9	The Panthers are leading the Southeast Division. Mock the Division, they're in 3rd in the Conference. (Playoff Probability 78.0%)	0.899
	10	10	Tampa Bay has goaltending problems. Here are many new ways to judge exactly that. (Playoff Probability 7.6%)	0.884
	11	12	The Sabres are spreading their difficult minutes by not letting many people take them on. (Playoff Probability 18.0%)	0.874
	12	13	Carolina went 1-1-2 in four road games last week. And they improved on their ranking. (Playoff Probability 1.2%)	0.861
	13	11	The Maple Leafs are once again looking at a top-10 draft pick. That could be okay. (Playoff Probability 5.9%)	0.859
	14	14	Montreal is already preparing for yet another GM. (Playoff Probability 0.1%)	0.845
	15	15	The Islanders are watching MIchael Grabner take fewer shots. That's slightly troubling. (Playoff Probability 0.4%)	0.798

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings need to remind themselves that Ken Holland knows what he's doing. You should remind yourself too. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.223
	2	2	St. Louis is playing really, really well right now. So much so that they have to keep an even keel. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.203
	3	3	The Canucks are struggling with complacency and expectations. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.053
	4	4	San Jose is struggling to stay in the playoff picture and Jeremy Roenick is still calling out Patrick Marleau. (Playoff Probability 68.9%)	0.992
	5	5	The Predators are getting excited about former first round pick Alexander Radulov possibly coming over to the NHL. (Playoff Probability 99.6%)	0.968
	6	6	Chicago is hoping to get Jonathan Toews back soon and it's looking like they will. (Playoff Probability 94.4%)	0.961
	7	7	The Coyotes have been getting great goaltending from Mike Smith all year, and he was named one of the NHL's three stars of February. (Playoff Probability 61.3%)	0.960
	8	8	Dallas got a boost as their Captain Brendan Morrow returned from injury. (Playoff Probability 91.2%)	0.957
	9	9	The Kings have seen their goals for spike and their goals against plummet in the small-sample-size of post-Johnson for Carter. (Playoff Probability 31.3%)	0.912
	10	10	Colorado has a chance to sneak into the playoffs, but it won't be easy. (Playoff Probability 34.4%)	0.893
	11	12	The Flames also have a chance to make the playoffs. It's an even smaller chance, but it's there. (Playoff Probability 18.4%)	0.883
	12	11	Anaheim is without Corey Perry after Stephane Robidas hit him into the boards awkwardly. (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.879
	13	13	The Oilers celebrate year two - that's it?? - of their rebuilding plan. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.821
	14	14	Minnesota has a clear goal: "Don't win, but don't look stupid losing." (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.784
	15	15	The Blue Jackets are considering their options with the first overall pick, including... trading it? (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.742

NHL Power Rankings Week 20: New York and Detroit Make Their Case

Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans and internet wasn’t available immediately.

This week, the biggest movers were Winnipeg and Colorado while the Rangers overtook Boston for first in the East.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T. As you’ll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Rangers overtook Boston and they did it without trading Chris Kreider for Rick Nash. More on Kreider. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.128
	2	1	Boston lost Tuukka Rask to a groin injury and replaced him with Marty Turco. Ouch. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	1.103
	3	3	The Flyers are now without defensemen Kimmo Timonen and Andrej Meszaros, on top of losing Chris Pronger. Not good.(Playoff Probability 98.6%)	1.011
	4	4	Pittsburgh is no longer subject to the "But you have Matt Cooke" retort. Seriously. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.010
	5	5	The Senators need to figure out what to do in goal, with two rookies and Alex Auld. (Playoff Probability 86.6%)	0.945
	6	5	Washington was wondering if they had turned a corner on their possession metrics. It doesn’t look like it. (Playoff Probability 41.6%)	0.937
	7	12	The Jets have an awful penalty kill. A look at why. (Playoff Probability 41.9%)	0.912
	8	10	New Jersey is seeing some funny things happen with their shooting percentages this year. (Playoff Probability 96.7%)	0.905
	9	8	The Panthers went 2-2 last week included an embarrassing 7-0 loss in Winnipeg. (Playoff Probability 73.1%)	0.904
	10	11	Tampa Bay is wondering how their Keith Aulie acquisition will play out. (Playoff Probability 20.3%)	0.896
	11	6	The Maple Leafs are hoping new coach Randy Carlyle brings with him a new line structure. (Playoff Probability 16.2%)	0.888
	12	13	Buffalo is dreaming of actually making the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 21.3%)	0.887
	13	14	The Hurricanes enjoyed themselves a Casino Night for charity. (Playoff Probability 1.7%)	0.860
	14	7	Montreal scored three goals in three games, losing all three last week. Just awful. (Playoff Probability 0.2%)	0.837
	15	15	The Islanders are hoping their guys can show who they are and how they fit in for the future. (Playoff Probability 2.1%)	0.806

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Red Wings are really good at even strength, but they’re also really good on special teams. Shocker, I know. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.231
	2	1	St. Louis has a Canada-hater in David Backes. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.181
	3	4	The Canucks are wondering where the Sedin twins have gone. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.068
	4	3	San Jose is getting a great season out of Joe Thornton, possibly the best season out of him. (Playoff Probability 81.8%)	1.007
	5	7	The Predators saw GM David Poile make some big moves for them at the deadline. Nashville’s serious. (Playoff Probability 97.4%)	0.971
	6	6	Chicago is seeing Patrick Kane step up for them when they most need him. (Playoff Probability 88.3%)	0.967
	7	5	The Coyotes beat Vancouver then lost to Columbus. While it doesn’t make sense, it’s not a reason to worry. (Playoff Probability 72.6%)	0.961
	8	8	Dallas needs to avoid another late-season collapse. (Playoff Probability 60.9%)	0.952
	9	9	The Kings saw Mike Richards assist on a Jeff Carter goal. Not once, but twice. (Playoff Probability 54.9%)	0.926
	10	13	Colorado might actually, just maybe, could make the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 26.2%)	0.877
	11	12	The Ducks are somehow still thinking playoffs. (Playoff Probability 2.0%)	0.876
	12	10	Calgary is questioning whether they should re-sign head coach Brent Sutter. (Playoff Probability 13.5%)	0.866
	13	14	The Oilers are making their fans wonder if they’ll win a Cup in their lifetime. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.833
	14	11	Minnesota is asking if this current team is their worst ever. Remember when they were in 1st place? (Playoff Probability 2.4%)	0.805
	15	15	The Blue Jackets are still trying to recover from the trade deadline, where their team somehow got even worse. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.731

NHL Power Rankings Week 18: Coyotes Make a Move, Blues Still Atop NHL

Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans.

This week, Phoenix jumped up four spots while New Jersey moved up two.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins remain in first despite going 0-1-1 last week, including a 6-0 loss to Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.177
	2	2	New York is the latest team to entertain the possibility of trading for Jeff Carter. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.127
	3	3	The Flyers have been losing lately and Kimmo Timonen is decidedly not happy. (Playoff Probability 95%)	1.005
	4	4	Pittsburgh saw Jordan Staal score in his return from a knee injury. (Playoff Probability 96%)	0.980
	5	5	The Capitals are left hoping that Nicklas Backstrom can return before the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 65%)	0.956
	6	6	Toronto is stalling and wondering if they need to make a move. (Playoff Probability 57%)	0.937
	7	8	The Canadiens had a pretty bad first half, so it's worth looking at what went wrong. (Playoff Probability 9%)	0.921
	8	9	Florida has a favorable schedule ahead of them, making a Southeast Division title possible. (Playoff Probability 87%)	0.918
	9	7	The Senators are seeing coach MacLean use Daniel Alfredsson in optimal situations. (Playoff Probability 54%)	0.914
	10	12	New Jersey is wondering what will happen during their playoff push. (Playoff Probability 89%)	0.898
	11	11	The Lightning went 1-2-1 last week, only managing a 2-1 win over Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 13%)	0.891
	12	10	Winnipeg may be the healthiest they've been all season. (Playoff Probability 22%)	0.874
	13	13	The Sabres have seen Ryan Miller go on a tear of late, making 7 goals in 5 games enough to get 7 points. (Playoff Probability 6%)	0.855
	14	14	Carolina went out West and lost overtime games to Anaheim and Colorado. (Playoff Probability 1%)	0.844
	15	15	The Islanders aren't going to make the playoffs, so they should trade goalie Evgeni Nabokov. (Playoff Probability 6%)	0.808

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Blues are in love with themselves. For good reason, actually. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.231
	2	2	Detroit has now won 20 straight home games. Asterisk or no, that's impressive. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.205
	3	3	The Sharks have seen their power play regress, and why that's good. (Playoff Probability 94%)	1.080
	4	4	Vancouver went 1-0-2 last week, splitting the two shootouts they played. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.051
	5	9	The Coyotes may see Jeremy Roenick as a savior of their days in Phoenix. (Playoff Probability 98.3%)	0.965
	6	5	Chicago is reeling, but there's some simple solutions. (Playoff Probability 62%)	0.956
	7	6	The Predators were not happy with their effort against Boston.(Playoff Probability 95%)	0.942
	8	7	Dallas is seeing Alex Goligoski start to rack up the points, comforting with his new contract. (Playoff Probability 38%)	0.919
	9	8	The Kings may be running out of patience with Dean Lombardi. (Playoff Probability 52%)	0.915
	10	10	Calgary is told Mikael Backlund is a bust. Calgary proceeds to explain why that is ludicrous. (Playoff Probability 42%)	0.866
	11	11	The Wild still can't decide if they're buying or selling. Still? (Playoff Probability 24%)	0.859
	12	13	Anaheim saw GM Bob Murray take a thinly veiled shot at Brian Burke, claiming Burke left the system in shambles. (Playoff Probability 3%)	0.845
	13	12	The Avalanche don't expect to be very active at the deadline, setting up a fairly similar team next year. (Playoff Probability 32%)	0.844
	14	14	Edmonton resigned Andy Sutton, presumably taking another defenseman off the trade block. (Playoff Probability 2%)	0.814
	15	15	The Blue Jackets aren't helping Ryan Johansen in his rookie year, suggesting the whole team is just miserable. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.740

NHL Power Rankings Week 16: Red Wings Fall, Blues Up Top in the West

This week, Montreal's 7-2 romp of Detroit results in the Red Wings falling out of first for the first time in over two months.

New this week are Playoff Probabilities according to Fear the Fin, listed in our rationale. These probabilities are based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick published by Broad Street Hockey's Eric T. As you'll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins may not even entertain the possibility of trading Tim Thomas, but their fans are. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	1.270
	2	2	New York is showing how deep their blueline is. (Playoff Probability 98.5%)	1.125
	3	3	The Flyers are getting more than they expected out of Max Talbot. (Playoff Probability 98.4%)	1.014
	4	4	Pittsburgh has an underrated player in Chris Kunitz. (Playoff Probability 99.1%)	0.993
	5	6	The Capitals may not be as good as they appear here, but that Southeast Division sure is helping them. (Playoff Probability 63.0%)	0.966
	6	7	Toronto is getting more out of Joffrey Lupul than they could have expected, especially when you consider how terrifying his illness was. (Playoff Probability 52.9%)	0.944
	7	5	The Senators may be interested in acquiring Jeff Carter. They do need a top-six scorer. (Playoff Probability 73.5%)	0.942
	8	10	Montreal made a large jump mostly because they destroyed the Red Wings right before the All-Star Break. (Playoff Probability 17.1%)	0.911
	9	9	The Panthers have rather high odds of making the playoffs, mostly thanks to their weak division. (Playoff Probability 67.7%)	0.895
	10	10	Winnipeg was outscored 5-1 in two losses last week, but they have an outside shot to sneak into the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 35.2%)	0.878
	11	12	The Lightning are going to be good sooner than later, so all those abandoning ship should think before leaving. (Playoff Probability 8.9%)	0.876
	12	11	New Jersey has a Zach Parise problem, but they'd be stupid to trade him this year. (Playoff Probability 70.8%)	0.875
	13	13	The Sabres are left wondering what is wrong with their team. The answer is: "a lot." (Playoff Probability 3.3%)	0.819
	14	15	Carolina extended Tim Gleason with a four year, $16 million deal, likely removing him from the trading block. (Playoff Probability 2.0%)	0.811
	15	14	The Islanders have learned that Evgeni Nabokov prefers one-on-one situations. (Playoff Probability 9.7%)	0.800

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Blues lost to Detroit 3-1, and yet still moved ahead of them. They can thank Montreal. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	1.206
	2	1	Detroit falls out of first in the West for the first time since week 6. A 7-2 loss to Montreal will do that. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	1.204
	3	3	The Sharks have a much improved fourth line this year, and it will help them down the stretch. (Playoff Probability 97.9%)	1.081
	4	4	Vancouver is curious how they can get better. Scary. (Playoff Probability 99.1%)	1.056
	5	5	The Blackhawks have a new centerman, but Brendan Morrison isn't exactly a difference maker. (Playoff Probability 98.3%)	1.014
	6	8	Nashville is now faced with Ryan Suter refusing to sign an extension before the trade deadline. GM David Poile is in a tough spot. (Playoff Probability 74.9%)	0.936
	7	6	The Stars no longer have any excuses: It's time to win some hockey games. (Playoff Probability 48.7%)	0.927
	8	9	Los Angeles needs a scorer, but who is going to be their trade bait? (Playoff Probability 78.3%)	0.925
	9	7	The Coyotes take a stumble despite beating Ottawa 3-2, and they face a difficult road to the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 23.6%)	0.921
	10	10	Calgary is entertaining the possibility of adding Jeff Carter to their team. What does Jarome Iginla think? (Playoff Probability 16.6%)	0.874
	11	11	The Wild got Guillaume Latendresse back at practice, which will help. (Playoff Probability 19.4%)	0.871
	12	12	Colorado has a good chance at making the playoffs, but they still don't know if they will be buying or selling at the deadline. (Playoff Probability 42.0%)	0.844
	13	13	The Ducks have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs even after an 8-1-1 run. (Playoff Probability 0.9%)	0.819
	14	14	Edmonton is stuck in a never-ending rebuild. That must be extremely frustrating. (Playoff Probability 0.5%)	0.798
	15	15	The Blue Jackets did not make the playoffs once under Fear the Fin's simulations, but they did see their owner write an apology letter to their fans. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.755

NHL Power Rankings Week 15: Nashville Leaps Up While Boston Survives Gauntlet

This week, Nashville shot up four spots to number eight while both Ottawa and Anaheim moved up two positions.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins got through a tough weekend with back-to-back games against the Rangers and Flyers, but lost Nathan Horton to a concussion.	1.305
	2	2	New York is still suffering in possession metrics due to a bad start to the year, but they are improving quickly.	1.093
	3	3	The Flyers added Danny Briere to their list of concussed players, but they still keep winning.	1.011
	4	4	Pittsburgh is all about Evgeni Malkin right now. The NHL's first star of the week had 5 goals and 2 assists (plus two shootout goals) in four games.	0.994
	5	7	The Senators are already looking towards an easier schedule after the break and the sixth seed in the East.	0.963
	6	6	Washington is barely hanging onto the final playoff spot in the East and part of the problem is their road record.	0.955
	7	5	The Maple Leafs got a hat trick out of Lee Stempniak, and the internet got to laugh at his crazy, angry brother.	0.922
	8	8	Winnipeg went 2-1-1 against some mediocre teams, but a 5-1 loss to New Jersey looks bad.	0.902
	9	9	The Panthers went 0-1-3, taking Boston to a shootout and winning one against Winnipeg.	0.899
	10	10	Montreal got three points over the weekend, beating Toronto and losing to Pittsburgh in a shootout, salvaging their dim playoff hopes.	0.894
	11	12	The Devils acquired oft-traveled Alexei Ponikarovsky and saw him score in his first game for New Jersey.	0.876
	12	13	Tampa Bay went 3-0-0 last week, beating Boston, Dallas, and Phoenix. That's a very good week for a struggling Tampa Bay team.	0.866
	13	11	The Sabres need to win 60% of their remaining games just to have a 35% chance of making the playoffs. Math sucks sometimes.	0.817
	14	15	New York believes John Tavares is one of the NHL's 25 best players under 25, and here's a good rebuttal for why he should be included.	0.814
	15	14	The Hurricanes had a good week, going 2-0-2 despite only scoring seven goals all week.	0.802

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings beat the Blues 3-1 last night, but it was their fans who got to laugh at crazy things said by Blues fans all week.	1.240
	2	2	St. Louis went 3-1-0 last week, only losing to Detroit last night. Still the second best team in the West.	1.224
	3	3	The Sharks are getting points against playoff teams at a better rate than any Western Conference team not in Minnesota.	1.074
	4	4	Vancouver doesn't like to admit that Roberto Luongo is a very good goaltender, but it's still true.	1.052
	5	5	The Blackhawks went 2-1-0 last week, beating up on Buffalo and Florida, but losing big to Nashville.	1.027
	6	6	Dallas just signed Alex Goligoski to a four year contract worth $4.6 million per season.	0.918
	7	7	The Coyotes went 1-2-1 last week and now sit in 12th place in the West. They're better than that.	0.912
	8	12	Nashville went 4-1-0 last week, outscoring their opposition 15-4 in their wins (they lost to the Rangers 3-0), and saw Kevin Klein score on a knuckler from the blueline.	0.912
	9	8	The Kings are currently in 7th in the West, and they also happen to be on the necessary pace to make the playoffs.	0.910
	10	9	Calgary still thinks they could make the playoffs, but at least that's better than thinking they could compete in the playoffs.	0.885
	11	10	The Wild are finally talking about who to dump at the trade deadline.	0.866
	12	12	Colorado went 1-2-1 last week, beating the Kings in regulation and Florida in overtime.	0.845
	13	15	The Ducks have not lost in regulation in 8 games, but they're so far back, they still have no shot of making the playoffs.	0.837
	14	13	Edmonton thinks they've got all of the pieces to make a run at the playoffs. Yes, that's almost a direct quote.	0.799
	15	14	The Blue Jackets are sticking with the two men at the top of their organization, even if most don't understand why.	0.767

NHL Power Rankings Week 14: Bruins and Rangers Poised For Saturday Showdown

This week, Nashville made a big jump up in the West while Toronto fell two spots in the East.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins are still playing fantastic hockey, but what's even scarier is looking at the spare parts hitting free agency this summer.	1.357
	2	2	New York is in first place in the East, but with a date against Boston on the horizon, they need to stay focused.	1.109
	3	3	The Flyers have been getting some big contributions out of Sean Couturier lately.	1.022
	4	4	Pittsburgh is doing well, but they're injured. Imagine if they weren't.	0.978
	5	6	The Capitals went 3-1-0 last week (but just got shutout by the Islanders Tuesday night), giving Caps fans some hope.	0.960
	6	7	Ottawa is making a charge up the standings, thanks in large part to Craig Anderson.	0.952
	7	5	The Maple Leafs stumbled a bit, going 1-2-0 last week. The 3-2 loss to the Sabres hurts.	0.935
	8	8	Winnipeg has turned out to be a surprisingly average NHL team, which is certainly better than not having a team at all.	0.911
	9	9	The Panthers went 1-1-1 last week, but it has to be considered a positive when playing Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Boston.	0.908
	10	10	Montreal sees their fans giving up on the season with them 8 points out of a playoff spot.	0.889
	11	12	The Devils are struggling, so it's time they start to consider what they could get for Zach Parise.	0.871
	12	11	Buffalo is in a tailspin, going 1-5-1 in their last seven, getting shutout three times in that span.	0.855
	13	13	The Lightning are facing demands to overhaul their organization, but Steve Yzerman was brought in for just that. Tampa needs patience.	0.822
	14	14	Carolina went 2-2 last week, understandable with games against Philly, Boston, and Washington. A good week for them.	0.797
	15	15	The Islanders saw Rick DiPietro hurt himself while on IR, and will miss the rest of the season after abdominal surgery.	0.783

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings went 1-1-2 last week, which makes them 2-2-3 over the last two. SLUMP!	1.252
	2	2	St. Louis saw T.J. Oshie score a beautiful goal en route to a 2-1-1 week.	1.196
	3	3	The Sharks have a few weaknesses, but when you list them next to the positives? They're minor complaints.	1.129
	4	4	Vancouver is turning on Ryan Kesler, but luckily there's a voice of reason anger to tell people to knock it off.	1.044
	5	5	The Blackhawks went 3-0-1 last week, beating up on Minnesota and Columbus before beating S.J. and losing to Detroit in OT.	1.014
	6	6	Dallas is starting to fear for their playoff lives, since effort isn't enough in their roller-coaster season.	0.951
	7	7	The Coyotes are in a bit of a slide, going 1-1-2 last week and only winning twice in the last eleven tries, but it's not time to panic yet.	0.939
	8	8	Los Angeles went 2-0-2, which helps keep them in the playoff picture, but an OT loss to Edmonton kept this from being a great week.	0.915
	9	12	The Predators made a big jump, going 3-0-1 last week thanks two three games against the Avalanche and Islanders. Still, get those points.	0.904
	10	9	Calgary reacquired Mike Cammalleri after the Canadiens exiled him. The hope is that he helps them at least make the playoffs.	0.877
	11	10	The Wild keep falling and their once-optimistic fans are now resigned to the fact that the season is over and trades need to happen.	0.865
	12	11	Colorado went 1-2-1 last week against Nashville, Dallas, and Phoenix, failing to show they belong on the playoff bubble.	0.830
	13	13	The Oilers went 0-1-2 on a three-game homestand against New Jersey, Anaheim, and L.A. That's not good at all.	0.829
	14	15	Anaheim went 3-0-1 last week with a big win over Vancouver. It was enough to surpass Columbus.	0.792
	15	14	The Blue Jackets are really struggling, and for those who are visual learners, here is a great look at why.	0.764

NHL Power Rankings Week 13: Injuries Poised to Shakeup Stagnant Standings

This week, Toronto and Montreal made the biggest moves while the only movement in the West was Colorado and Edmonton trading places.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins lost to Vancouver and lost Brad Marchand to a five-game suspension. But they are so far and away the best team in the East, they'll just keep going.	1.418
	2	2	New York just got even better than they already have been: Marc Staal returned from his concussion.	1.143
	3	3	The Flyers saw Danny Briere score a hat trick to win in overtime Saturday, after he got in his third fight of his career.	1.015
	4	4	Pittsburgh got even more bad news this week, as both Jordan Staal and James Neal will be out "weeks".	0.977
	5	8	The Maple Leafs made a big move up, going 3-0 and beating Tampa and Winnipeg by a combined 11-3. Oh, they also beat Detroit 4-3.	0.958
	6	6	Washington stayed put as they beat Calgary 3-1 but lost to San Jose 5-2.	0.954
	7	9	The Senators collected three points in a weekend set against the Flyers, moving them up two spots.	0.939
	8	5	Winnipeg only scored five goals in their last three games, which included a 2-1 overtime win against Buffalo and a 7-3 loss to Montreal.	0.926
	9	7	The Panthers fell this week and they continue to struggle, going 1-2-1 in their last four.	0.917
	10	13	Montreal makes a move up thanks to a 7-3 beating of the Jets.	0.902
	11	12	The Sabres may be better off without Derek Roy.	0.889
	12	10	New Jersey has seen David Clarkson be a huge contributor this season. I know because he's on my fantasy teams.	0.875
	13	11	The Lightning may think they just need a better goalie (again), but it's much more complicated than that.	0.839
	14	15	Carolina lost to the Islanders in a shootout but still continued to alternate the final two positions here.	0.787
	15	14	The Islanders lost Rick DiPietro to injury again... while he was already on injured reserve.	0.751

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings went 1-1-1, a bad week for them, but still have a comfortable lead out West.	1.281
	2	3	St. Louis went 3-0 last week, scoring four goals in each game while giving up only four combined.	1.167
	3	2	The Sharks went 3-0-1 but fell a spot anyway. Rough.	1.159
	4	4	Vancouver beat Boston 4-3 in Boston and they are still celebrating.	1.089
	5	5	The Blackhawks will be without Patrick Sharp for 3-4 weeks as he injured his wrist.	0.994
	6	6	Dallas may be without Mike Ribeiro for a little while, which is bad news for for the Stars as they try to build off three straight four-goal games.	0.975
	7	7	The Coyotes saw Shane Doan score his first ever NHL hat trick last week. How did this guy not get one before then??	0.930
	8	8	Los Angeles is stuck debating whether their glass is half-full or half-empty. A 52.24% Fenwick tied suggests half-full.	0.888
	9	9	The Flames saw Jarome Iginla score his 500th NHL goal last week. Good for one of the most underrated players in the League.	0.862
	10	10	Minnesota is having such a hard time scoring goals, they are being compared to the Loch Ness Monster.	0.860
	11	13	The Avalanche were the only team to move up in the West, but Erik Johnson hurt his hand and is day-to-day.	0.858
	12	12	Nashville will be prepared to trade Ryan Suter if it appears unlikely he will re-sign.	0.857
	13	11	The Oilers went 1-3 last week, falling back to where they spent most of last season. Such is life in a rebuild.	0.837
	14	14	Columbus finally fired their coach, but they replaced him with Todd Richards, who was fired from Minnesota	0.756
	15	15	The Ducks announced that almost everybody on their team is available on the trade market. Naturally, teams are salivating.	0.722

NHL Power Rankings Week 12: Steady at the Top, L.A. Makes a Move

This week, Los Angeles moved up four spots while Toronto, Buffalo, and Edmonton all dropped three.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins stay atop the league despite going 0-1-1 last week, scoring only three goals in regulation.	1.314
	2	2	New York stays in second going 3-1-0 last week.	1.140
	3	3	The Flyers went 1-2-0 including a 5-1 loss in Tampa Bay after Christmas.	1.033
	4	4	Pittsburgh hangs onto the fourth spot, barely, after going 1-2-0 last week.	0.993
	5	7	The Jets are a surprise entry into the East's top 5, after giving up three goals on the way to a 2-0-1 week.	0.966
	6	6	Washington is right behind Winnipeg thanks to a 3-1-0 week.	0.961
	7	8	The Panthers are still going strong, beating Toronto and Montreal at home.	0.930
	8	5	Toronto takes a fall as they go 0-2-1 against Florida, Carolina, and Winnipeg. That's not good.	0.924
	9	10	The Senators lost the only game they played that was decided in regulation, but they beat Buffalo in overtime in between two shootout wins.	0.909
	10	12	New Jersey went 2-1-1, enough to move up here, largely thanks to Buffalo's struggles	0.884
	11	13	The Lightning hold a slight edge over Buffalo, and they can thank a 5-1 win over the Flyers for that.	0.877
	12	9	Buffalo went 1-2-1, scoring more than two goals only once. Hard times in Buffalo.	0.875
	13	11	The Canadiens actually apologized to their fans for hiring a coach who only speaks English. Maybe worry more about losing to teams in Florida.	0.862
	14	15	New York handled Western Canada well enough to move back out of the cellar, beating Calgary and Edmonton by a combined 7-2.	0.777
	15	14	The Hurricanes return to the basement largely due to 21 regulation losses, but going 1-2-1 last week didn't help.	0.771

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings went 3-1-0 against Nashville, St. Louis, Chicago, and St. Louis. They lead the league in Fenwick tied and are second in 5-on-5 ratio. Ho hum.	1.297
	2	3	San Jose went 0-1-2 and still somehow managed to take over second place. That's because...	1.132
	3	2	The Blues lost two games in Detroit and couldn't score more than one goal against Nashville.	1.118
	4	4	Vancouver went 3-1-1 and are back atop the Northwest Division.	1.082
	5	5	The Blackhawks are atop the Western Conference still, but they could only go 2-2-0 on their four game homestand. Losing to Edmonton hurts.	1.029
	6	6	Dallas went 1-2 last week, losing to Columbus 4-1 but beating Boston 4-2. Weird week in Texas.	0.951
	7	7	The Coyotes went 1-2-1 last week, with their only regulation win coming against Minnesota.	0.918
	8	12	Los Angeles made a big jump, going 3-0-2 last week. In the two losses, they only scored one goal.	0.890
	9	9	The Flames went 0-2-2 last week, yet still managed to avoid falling.	0.890
	10	10	Minnesota went 1-2-1, staying in 10th.	0.889
	11	8	The Oilers went 1-3-0, beating Chicago at the end if the week to salvage it.	0.887
	12	11	Nashville went 1-1-2 but the league-worst Fenwick tied is pulling them down.	0.865
	13	13	The Avalanche went 3-1-1 but couldn't move up. If they can improve their 5-on-5 scoring, they might be decent.	0.849
	14	14	Columbus beat Dallas 4-1. But they lost James Wisniewski to a broken ankle again.	0.754
	15	15	The Ducks beat San Jose 3-2, ending December with 3 regulation wins.	0.707

NHL Power Rankings Week 11: First Major Shakeup of the Year

This week, Toronto, Washington, and Dallas made big moves up the rankings while Montreal, Minnesota, and Florida took large falls.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins strengthened their spot atop the NHL with an 8-0 win over Florida on Friday.	1.347
	2	3	New York went 3-0-0 against the tri-state teams, winning by a combined 12-5. Solid week for them.	1.130
	3	2	The Flyers went 1-1-1 on the road, slipping back to the #3 spot.	1.068
	4	4	Pittsburgh went 2-0-0, staying in the fourth spot for the fourth straight week.	0.999
	5	9	The Maple Leafs made a big jump this week thanks to a 2-0-1 week.	0.949
	6	10	Washington also made a big jump despite only going 1-0-1.	0.942
	7	8	The Jets went 1-1-1 and still moved up a spot, mostly because...	0.938
	8	5	Florida went 0-2-1 including an 8-0 blowout loss to Boston.	0.931
	9	7	The Sabres went 0-2-0, getting outscored 7-3 by Toronto and Ottawa.	0.898
	10	12	Ottawa went 1-0-2, missing a chance to move up even further by losing 2-1 in overtime to Carolina.	0.893
	11	6	The Canadiens plummeted after getting outscored 12-3 in three straight regulation losses.	0.866
	12	11	New Jersey managed to beat the Capitals in a shootout after blowing a 3-0 lead, while also losing to the Rangers 4-1.	0.858
	13	13	The Lightning gave up 7 to San Jose before losing to Colorado in overtime.	0.813
	14	15	Carolina didn't get a regulation win last week, but still got out of the cellar.	0.773
	15	14	The Islanders went 0-3-1, falling back to last for the first time in a month.	0.763

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings went 1-2-0 last week, but still sit atop the West thanks to a superior goal ratio and Fenwick ratio.	1.240
	2	2	St. Louis played two straight 3-2 games, beating Phoenix but losing to Colorado.	1.206
	3	3	The Sharks played two struggling teams, needing a shootout to get past L.A. but stomping Tampa Bay 7-2.	1.154
	4	4	Vancouver is now just one point out of the division lead, about to return the NHL standings to normalcy.	1.083
	5	5	The Blackhawks are atop the West in points and Fenwick tied percentage, but they are fifth here due to a mediocre five-on-five ratio and fewer regulation wins.	1.044
	6	9	Dallas made a big jump after going 2-1-0 last week.	0.958
	7	7	The Coyotes went 2-1-0 (all one-goal games) last week, playing St. Louis close, staying in 7th place.	0.933
	8	8	Edmonton played as expected last week, beating Minnesota but losing to Detroit.	0.924
	9	11	The Flames won all three games last week, beating Vancouver, Detroit, and Minnesota. A very good week in Calgary.	0.921
	10	6	Minnesota tumbled after losing all four games in regulation, getting outscored 14-4. You could blame injuries or you could blame regression. Time will tell.	0.894
	11	10	The Predators lost to Washington and Dallas while needing a comeback from 4-1 to beat Columbus. Bad week in Nashville.	0.873
	12	12	Los Angeles played three shootouts last week. Playing Anaheim, Toronto, and San Jose, the Kings needed better.	0.835
	13	13	The Avalanche went 2-0-2 last week, beating St. Louis and Minnesota. It was a good week and they improved by 0.04 here, but they were really far behind.	0.822
	14	14	Columbus only played one game last week, they lead 4-1 after 25 minutes of play, and still managed to lose 6-5.	0.732
	15	15	The Ducks went 0-1-1 last week, and only have two regulation wins in December. Rough.	0.710

NHL Power Rankings Week 10: Familiar Names Sit at the Top

This week, Florida, Nashville, and Winnipeg each moved up two spots while Washington, Edmonton, and Calgary each fell two spots.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins continue to lead the NHL, and a 6-0 win in Philadelphia went a long way toward ensuring they stay there.	1.317
	2	3	Philadelphia moved up one spot largely due to having more regulation wins than the Rangers. Otherwise, the two teams are quite similar.	1.093
	3	2	The Rangers drop out of the top two for the first time since Week 6.	1.068
	4	4	Pittsburgh holds tight to the fourth spot, but there's definitely a gap between them and the top three.	0.984
	5	7	The Panthers move back up two spots after falling two spots last week despite needing overtime in all three games last week.	0.959
	6	5	Montreal has a new coach, so maybe he can improve their 7-4-7 record in one-goal games.	0.940
	7	6	The Sabres just missed out on maintaining the sixth spot, but the 8-3 loss in Pittsburgh ensured that wouldn't happen.	0.939
	8	10	Winnipeg continues to surprise as they are hanging around the playoff bubble. That has more to do with Montreal and Washington's struggles, but still. Not a bad team.	0.922
	9	9	The Maple Leafs sit 18th in Fenwick tied and 14th in five-on-five ratio. Pretty average team up in Toronto.	0.920
	10	8	Washington drops two spots as they could only score three goals in three games last week. These aren't your Capitals of two years ago.	0.915
	11	12	The Devils have the 9th best Fenwick tied ratio in the league, but they are 24th in five-on-five ratio.	0.879
	12	11	Ottawa went 1-1-1 last week, but are still 21st in five-on-five ratio and 16th in Fenwick tied.	0.869
	13	13	The Lightning continue to disappoint, sitting 26th in Fenwick tied and 22nd in five-on-five ratio. Not good in Tampa.	0.825
	14	14	New York went 0-2-1 last week, but they beat the Wild in the shootout.	0.789
	15	15	The Hurricanes went 1-0-2 last week, beating Vancouver in regulation. That's impressive for them.	0.753

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings beat Pittsburgh and L.A. by a combined score of 12-3, but lost to Nashville 4-3. Ho hum.	1.269
	2	2	St. Louis continues to impress, as they did before Hitchcock was hired. They went 2-0-1 last week.	1.235
	3	3	The Sharks went 2-0-1 last week, further cementing themselves among the West's best teams.	1.123
	4	4	Vancouver went 1-1-1 on a three game road trip against average-to-bad teams, but managed to stay in 4th.	1.086
	5	5	The Blackhawks continue to win, going 2-0-1 last week, with Ray Emery winning each of his last five games.	1.023
	6	7	Minnesota moves up a spot again despite going 0-1-2 last week. They have four straight division games this week, three of which are on the road.	0.953
	7	8	The Coyotes went 1-2 last week, but still moved up a spot. They will face Florida, Carolina, St. Louis, and L.A. this week.	0.952
	8	6	Edmonton dropped two spots after losing to Phoenix and San Jose last week. They sit 13th in Fenwick tied and 11th in five-on-five ratio.	0.929
	9	10	The Stars went 2-1 in their swing through New York and New Jersey, but they are still a middle of the pack team.	0.926
	10	12	Nashville went 2-0-1 last week, beating Detroit in regulation and St. Louis in a shootout. Good week for them, though they are still 28th in Fenwick tied.	0.899
	11	9	The Flames went 0-2-2 on the road last week, scoring a total of 9 goals.	0.882
	12	11	Los Angeles has a new coach, but after getting outscored 12-4 last week (thanks, Detroit), they have a long way to go.	0.832
	13	13	The Avalanche aren't much different from L.A., except for regulation wins.	0.782
	14	14	Columbus beat Vancouver in a shootout, but lost their other three games in regulation. Averaging two goals a game won't cut it.	0.741
	15	15	The Ducks beat Phoenix 4-1. They then lost to Chicago and Winnipeg by a combined 9-4. Progress?	0.711

NHL Power Rankings Week 9: The Blues Need More Attention

This week, Montreal and Minnesota moved up two spots each while Florida, Phoenix, and Dallas each fell two spots.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins sit atop the East again, continuing to have the best 5-on-5 ratio in the league.	1.239
	2	2	New York is still in second despite the fifth worst Fenwick tied ratio. They can thank Henrik Lundqvist and his 0.932 save percentage.	1.095
	3	3	The Flyers have the seventh worst Fenwick tied ratio, but are scoring on 10.1% of their shots. That will certainly help.	1.080
	4	4	Pittsburgh rounds out the unchanged top of the East, being buoyed by the 6th highest Fenwick tied ratio.	1.007
	5	7	The Canadiens are outscoring their opponents at 5-on-5 and just barely losing the shot battle with the score tied. But they only have 11 regulation wins.	0.980
	6	6	Buffalo was not much different from Philly last week, but that's no longer true as their 5-on-5 ratio has slipped.	0.960
	7	5	The Panthers took a tumble despite going 2-1-1. They no longer are outscoring their opposition at 5-on-5.	0.956
	8	8	Washington continues to sit on the bubble despite a solid Fenwick tied, thanks to being outscored at five-on-five.	0.945
	9	10	The Maple Leafs sit 23rd in Fenwick tied and 13th in 5-on-5 ratio.	0.940
	10	9	Winnipeg is 21st in Fenwick tied and 16th in 5-on-5 ratio. They're not all that different from Toronto, really.	0.896
	11	11	The Senators have a higher Fenwick tied than both Winnipeg and Toronto, but a lower 5-on-5 ratio.	0.852
	12	13	New Jersey has the 9th highest Fenwick tied, but are 25th in goal ratio.	0.817
	13	12	The Lightning have a Fenwick tied ratio nearly identical to the Rangers. But they don't have Henrik Lundqvist.	0.799
	14	14	New York continues to disappoint, with the league-worst five-on-five goal ratio.	0.785
	15	15	The Hurricanes gave up 14 goals in three games last week, but still managed to win one.	0.742

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Red Wings continue their amazing play, with the 2nd best 5-on-5 ratio, 3rd highest Fenwick tied, and most regulation wins.	1.263
	2	2	St. Louis is not far behind Detroit, actually. They have the 3rd best 5-on-5 ratio, 4th highest Fenwick tied, and most regulation wins.	1.222
	3	3	The Sharks are 10th in Fenwick tied but 4th in 5-on-5 ratio. Good team, but not as good as Detroit and St. Louis.	1.093
	4	4	Vancouver went 2-0-1, continuing their run to the top of the standings.	1.058
	5	5	The Blackhawks continue to struggle with goaltending, getting outscored at 5-on-5 despite the second best Fenwick tied ratio.	0.992
	6	7	Edmonton sits 8th in both Fenwick tied and 5-on-5 ratio. Is it time to start believing in them?	0.986
	7	9	The Wild move up again this week, giving up four goals in three road wins.	0.976
	8	6	Phoenix falls after going 1-2-1 last week, but they still are positive in both 5-on-5 ratio and Fenwick tied.	0.968
	9	11	The Flames move up thanks to the Stars fall, but they're still rather mediocre.	0.927
	10	8	Dallas went 1-1 last week, falling two spots.	0.919
	11	10	The Kings might fire their coach, which would probably not be a bad idea. There's too much talent there.	0.868
	12	12	Nashville is 26th in 5-on-5 ratio and 28th in Fenwick tied. Trouble in the south still.	0.830
	13	13	The Avalanche are struggling to outscore their opposition despite near even Fenwick tied ratio.	0.781
	14	14	Columbus has the 24th best 5-on-5 ratio, but the 12th best Fenwick tied.	0.777
	15	15	The Ducks beat the Kings last week. It was their only win as they continue to struggle.	0.708

NHL Power Rankings Week 8: Very Little Movement, But That Will Change

This week, no team moved more than two spots in the rankings. In the East, Ottawa moved up two spots while everyone else either went up one or down one. In the West, Vancouver and Minnesota moved up two, while everyone else either went up one or down one.

But a lot of teams are still waiting for the percentages to even out, so expect movement soon. Even if it's only in the official standings.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Bruins retake the top spot in the NHL from St. Louis, largely thanks to their league-leading 1.77 five-on-five ratio.	1.274
	2	2	New York continues to sit in second place despite the 26th best Fenwick tied ratio. Beware a fall.	1.100
	3	3	The Flyers continue to win despite the 19th best Fenwick tied, boosted by the 6th best five-on-five ratio.	1.047
	4	5	Pittsburgh is 5th in the league in Fenwick tied, but they are only barely outscoring the opposition at 5-on-5.	1.020
	5	4	The Panthers are breaking even at 5-on-5, but they're 8th in the league in Fenwick tied. A surprisingly solid team.	0.991
	6	6	Buffalo sits 22nd in Fenwick tied but has the 7th highest 5-on-5 ratio. What separates them from Philly? Three fewer regulation wins.	0.969
	7	8	The Canadiens are 8th in 5-on-5 ratio (notice a trend yet?) and 11th in Fenwick tied. But they've lost five games after regulation, bringing them down.	0.964
	8	7	Washington is an interesting case. They're 6th in Fenwick tied but losing the 5-on-5 goal battle. Normally, this is bad luck, but maybe they aren't generating chances.	0.940
	9	10	The Jets are barely outscoring the opposition at even strength and are 23rd in Fenwick tied.	0.908
	10	9	Toronto has fallen quite a bit, ranking 25th in Fenwick tied and 18th in goal ratio. Are they still a playoff team?	0.903
	11	13	The Senators make a move this week despite going 1-1-1. They rank 16th in Fenwick tied but aren't winning the goal battle.	0.845
	12	11	Tampa Bay  is just below the Rangers in Fenwick tied, but they are getting outscored at 5-on-5. Add both up and you have a bad team.	0.835
	13	12	The Devils are tenth in Fenwick tied but 25th in five-on-five goal ratio. They're better than this.	0.810
	14	15	New York is no longer in the basement! But really, not much separates them from Carolina.	0.772
	15	14	The Hurricanes drop to the bottom, but they aren't much worse than the Isle.	0.745

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Red Wings are third in both Fenwick tied and 5-on-5 goal ratio. Remember when people were making lists for why they might be finished? Yeah, oops.	1.206
	2	1	St. Louis continues their strong play - started before Ken Hitchcock was hired - as expected, ranking second in 5-on-5 ratio and fourth in Fenwick tied.	1.194
	3	3	The Sharks are 12th in Fenwick tied but fourth in goal ratio. Solid team, not challenging for the top team in the West though.	1.070
	4	6	Vancouver is 5-1-0 in their last six, and with the league-leading Fenwick tied ratio, they're moving up. Watch out.	1.045
	5	4	The Blackhawks are second in the league in Fenwick tied but are still getting outscored at 5-on-5. They are better than they appear.	0.993
	6	5	Phoenix is 15th in Fenwick tied and 11th in goal ratio. Playoff team again, but they aren't scaring many.	0.987
	7	7	The Oilers continue to impress with the 7th best Fenwick tied and the 10th best 5-on-5 ratio. They just aren't winning enough games in regulation.	0.984
	8	8	Dallas is just below even in Fenwick tied and five-on-five ratio, putting them square in the middle of the league.	0.943
	9	11	The Wild continue to sit atop the NHL standings despite the 12th best five-on-five ratio and worst Fenwick tied. Going 10-2-3 in one-goal games sure helps, but won't last.	0.940
	10	9	Los Angeles continues to be below average, ranking 17th in Fenwick tied and 20th in five-on-five goal ratio.	0.930
	11	10	The Flames keep having closed-door meetings, but ranking 20th in Fenwick tied and 16th in five-on-five ratio means they aren't going far.	0.894
	12	12	Nashville is off to a poor start. They're 28th in Fenwick tied and 22nd in five-on-five ratio. There's trouble in Trotz-ville.	0.873
	13	14	The Avalanche are 14th in Fenwick tied but they just aren't outscoring their opponents. Something will change.	0.817
	14	13	Columbus isn't too difference from Colorado except for points. They rank 14th and 15th in Fenwick tied and 27th and 26th in five-on-five ratio, but are separated by ten points in the standings.	0.755
	15	15	The Ducks continue to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, ranking 29th in both Fenwick tied and five-on-five ratio. They just have no depth.	0.697

NHL Power Rankings Week 6: New Formula Brings New Leaders

This week, Hawerchuk of Arctic Ice Hockey introduced Fenwick data on his behindthenet.ca site. As a refresher, Fenwick looks at goals, saves, and missed shots and represents them as a percentage of events in favor of the team. Limiting it to tied situations eliminates score effects apparent when teams sit on a lead.

This is a huge deal as Fenwick tied data has a large predictive correlation with future goal ratio. So with that, our power rankings formula gets a makeover.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	4	The Bruins are first in the NHL thanks largely to their league-leading 1.81 five-on-five ratio. They are 8th in FenTied	1.255
	2	3	Philadelphia moves up thanks to being 1st in the league in adjusted points per game. Their 23rd best FenTied is troublesome, however.	1.079
	3	6	The Canadiens are 5th in five-on-five ratio and 11th in FenTied. The wins will come for them.	1.047
	4	8	Florida may be a surprise here, but they are 5th in the league in FenTied and tied for 9th in adjusted points per game. They look like a legit playoff team.	1.036
	5	2	The Rangers are one of the teams who lose with the new system thanks to the 26th best FenTied.	1.026
	6	1	Washington also falls, but not because of the new formula. They are tied for 3rd in FenTied, but are 13th in five-on-five ratio.	1.016
	7	5	The Sabres rank 21st in FenTied, suggesting they are due for a fall.	0.981
	8	7	Toronto is definition of mediocre. They are 18th in FenTied, 16th in five-on-five ratio, and 20th in adjusted points per game.	0.930
	9	9	The Penguins are 6th in the league in FenTied and they are getting Sidney Crosby back. Look out.	0.929
	10	11	Winnipeg is slightly below average, really not all that worse than Toronto, but they aren't getting regulation wins.	0.885
	11	12	The Devils are controlling the play, but they aren't scoring or winning in regulation. Interesting case.	0.852
	12	10	Tampa Bay has a brutal FenTied, ranking 27th in the league. Yet they still get points. Same as last year?	0.847
	13	15	The Senators get out of the basement thanks to the 16th highest FenTied.	0.825
	14	13	Carolina has a terrible 0.69 five-on-five ratio and looks to be finding a spot in the bottom.	0.754
	15	14	The Islanders got off to such a promising start, and still have the 22nd best FenTied, but they aren't scoring or getting points.	0.742

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Blues reach the top of the power rankings thanks to the best 5-on-5 ratio and the second best FenTied.	1.230
	2	1	Detroit isn't far behind St. Louis, now they just need to get their special teams going.	1.185
	3	7	The Sharks are 12th in FenTied, but are getting a lot of points and have a good 5-on-5 ratio. They may not be as good as they look, but they're still good.	1.165
	4	5	Phoenix is still going strong with the 9th best FenTied.	1.048
	5	6	The Wild have the worst FenTied in the entire league, but they have the sixth best 5-on-5 ratio. They should fall soon.	1.007
	6	3	Chicago is the opposite of Minnesota. They have the 4th best FenTied but the 15th best five-on-five ratio. They'll improve.	1.005
	7	8	The Predators moved up despite having the 3rd worst FenTied in the league. They continue to get points despite getting severely outshot.	0.992
	8	9	Los Angeles is slightly below the middle of the pack, joining Toronto as the definition of mediocre.	0.933
	9	10	The Oilers aren't as good as they looked earlier, but they are no longer the laughing stock of the league, sitting 17th in FenTied.	0.929
	10	11	Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton are all fairly similar, but Calgary is getting better shooting luck.	0.926
	11	4	The Stars are the biggest loser here, partly because of their 25th best FenTied, but they were going to fall regardless due to their luck starting to run out.	0.892
	12	12	Vancouver has the 7th best FenTied, so they should improve as their shooting luck gets better.	0.886
	13	13	The Avalanche have the 13th best FenTied, but a horrible 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game marks. Who is this team?	0.776
	14	15	Columbus gets out of the basement! Their 14th best FenTied pulled them up.	0.713
	15	14	The Ducks become the basement tenants thanks to being 29th in FenTied, 30th in five-on-five ratio, and 29th in adjusted points per game.	0.691

NHL Power Rankings Week 5: Boston and Detroit Return to the Top

This week, the biggest movers were the Blues, Bruins, and Rangers while the Oilers, Maple Leafs, and Stars fell the farthest.

The formula looks at non-shootout win point totals per game, and multiplies that by five-on-five goal ratio. The numbers end up between 0 and 2 normally, but in the early season, those numbers are highly volatile.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Capitals no longer sit atop the NHL - the Red Wings reclaimed that spot - but they maintain their position atop the Eastern Conference.	1.653
	2	5	New York made a move after beating up on Ottawa and Carolina, and they are not far behind Washington at all.	1.640
	3	4	The Flyers move up a spot, close on the heels of New York and Washington, thanks to three straight back-to-back wins over Southeast teams.	1.610
	4	9	Boston makes a big jump after putting back-to-back six spots up against Edmonton and Buffalo.	1.560
	5	3	The Sabres fall despite going 1-1-2 and now will be without Ryan Miller due to a concussion.	1.424
	6	6	Montreal has the 5th best five-on-five goal ratio in the East, but they have as many regulation losses as wins.	1.2000
	7	2	The Maple Leafs took a big drop this week after going 0-2-1 against Florida, St. Louis, and Ottawa. Is the magical run over?	1.185
	8	10	Florida beat up on Toronto and Winnipeg before falling to Philly and remain a moderate surprise.	1.170
	9	7	The Penguins have the 23rd best 5-on-5 ratio in the league but the 10th most adjusted points per game. Something won't last.	0.929
	10	8	Tampa Bay is once again middling according to these metrics - 21st in 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game - but at least this time the standings agree.	0.870
	11	12	The Jets continue their slow climb out of the cellar, largely due to the 18th best 5-on-5 ratio in the league. Now they just need points.	0.754
	12	14	New Jersey went 1-1-1, beating Carolina before a tough home-and-home with Washington. That was good enough to move up.	0.676
	13	11	The Hurricanes went 1-3 last week, giving up three goals in all four games.  They have the 28th best 5-on-5 ratio.	0.583
	14	13	New York is sitting last in the East with 11 points, but they get more adjusted points per game than Winnipeg.	0.574
	15	15	The Senators may sit in 11th place in the East, but their 0.59 five-on-five ratio is miserable. They could easily be the worst team in he conference.	0.459

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	8	The Red Wings made their way back to the top quickly, beating Colorado, Edmonton, and Dallas by three goals each last week. Talk of their demise is premature.	2.039
	2	9	St. Louis also made quite a jump, going 2-0-1 with two three-nil shutouts. That will help. But the 1.50 five-on-five ratio is why they are so far up in these rankings.	1.594
	3	4	The Blackhawks went 3-1 last week, good enough to move them up.	1.584
	4	1	Dallas dropped out of the first spot pretty quickly after going 1-2 on the road in Washington, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. Not the worst that could happen.	1.563
	5	7	The Coyotes' Mike Smith is still 10th in the NHL in save percentage, helping them get a lot of points despite the 13th highest 5-on-5 ratio in the league.	1.457
	6	3	Minnesota's stay in the top-5 was short lived after going 2-2 last week. And there are signs they are headed for a cliff.	1.386
	7	6	The Sharks beat Minnesota but lost to Phoenix last week, resulting in a moderate drop.	1.337
	8	5	Nashville went 1-1-1, dropping all the way to 8th. This is mostly a result of their 17th ranked 5-on-5 ratio.	1.188
	9	10	The Kings went 2-1 on their recent homestand, but a 15th ranked 5-on-5 ratio prevents them from moving up.	1.162
	10	2	Edmonton plummets after going 1-3 in four road games last week. Nikolai Khabibulin stopping only 87.5% of shots the last two games is more of what we're used to.	1.028
	11	11	The Flames only scored one goal in two games before putting 4 on Colorado.	0.900
	12	12	Vancouver is still stuck in 12th despite 9 regulation wins. The 22nd best 5-on-5 ratio and 17th most adjusted points explains why.	0.887
	13	13	The Avalanche went 0-2-1 but didn't fall, mostly because Anaheim and Columbus are terrible.	0.626
	14	14	Anaheim went 1-2 on a three game homestand, but remains with the 29th best 5-on-5 ratio in the league. Maybe Niklas Hagman helps?	0.552
	15	15	The Blue Jackets beat Winnipeg! Good for them.	0.337

NHL Power Rankings Week 4: Some Teams Are Still Defying the Odds

This week, the biggest movers the Wild, Bruins, and Rangers were while the Kings, Sharks, and Senators fell the farthest.

The formula looks at non-shootout win point totals per game, and multiplies that by five-on-five goal ratio. The numbers end up between 0 and 2 normally, but in the early season, those numbers are highly volatile.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Capitals remain atop the standings for the third straight week despite losing to the Islanders in regulation and needing OT to beat Anaheim.	1.998
	2	3	Toronto moved up a spot as two road wins against weak teams (NJ and CBJ) made up for the 7-0 loss at home to Boston.	1.633
	3	2	The Sabres dropped one spot after averaging 2 GF and 2 GA in their three games last week. Not surprising, they went 1-1-1.	1.581
	4	4	Philadelphia is holding firm to that fourth spot, tied for 12th in the league in 5-on-5 ratio and tied for 4th in adjusted points per game.	1.440
	5	10	The Rangers made a big jump this week, going 3-0-1 on a four-game home stand. Their 5-on-5 ratio is 15th best, though, so more improvement is needed.	1.292
	6	5	Montreal is tied for 6th in the league in 5-on-5 ratio, but only has five regulation wins in 13 tries.	1.154
	7	6	The Penguins have a worse 5-on-5 ratio than two-thirds of the league (21st in the NHL) but keep finding ways to win. Two more shootout games for them last week, splitting them.	1.068
	8	7	Tampa Bay didn't get a single regulation win last week, but did win in OT and SO, only mildly dropped from last week.	1.039
	9	15	The Bruins are hoping that their 7-0 win in Toronto revives their season. They are now tied for the 6th best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL, they just need points.	0.938
	10	9	Florida was home for three games last week and went to a SO in all of them. They lost all three.	0.883
	11	8	The Hurricanes gave up 5 goals in back-to-back games and currently has a 5-on-5 ratio in between Columbus and New Jersey. Not a good sign.	0.740
	12	12	Winnipeg went on the road last week for four games and took two to OT. They went 1-1-2, maintaining their position above the East's scrap heap.	0.731
	13	13	The Islanders were shutout by Winnipeg before putting 5 goals on Washington. Strange.	0.709
	14	14	New Jersey sits with the 28th best 5-on-5 ratio and the 24th best power play. At least their PK is 3rd in the league.	0.583
	15	11	The Senators dropped to last in the East behind an 0-2-1 week, but the bigger problem is their NHL-worst 5-on-5 ratio. Bad news in Ottawa.	0.512

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	2	The Stars take the top spot in the West after a 7-6 OT win over Colorado and a 5-2 win over Carolina.	1.842
	2	3	Edmonton has the second best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL, largely due to only giving up 1.54 goals against per game. That can't last.	1.805
	3	12	The Wild were this week's biggest winner, going 2-0-1 and only giving up one goal in each game. They are the only other team giving up under two goals per game.	1.442
	4	5	Chicago finds themselves with the 11st best 5-on-5 ratio in the League and 9th best adjusted points per game. Solid team in Chicago.	1.384
	5	7	The Predators went 1-0-2 on the road last week, but still moved up due to surpassing San Jose in adjusted points per game.	1.354
	6	1	San Jose went 0-1-2, falling all the way from 2nd in the power rankings to 10th, right where their 5-on-5 ratio is.	1.322
	7	6	The Coyotes have somehow managed to take the 16th best 5-on-5 ratio and turn it into the 6th best points per game mark.	1.280
	8	8	Detroit continues to tread water, thanks to a 5-0 blowout of Anaheim after only scoring 1 goal in each of their previous two games and 6 goals in their last 6 games.	1.213
	9	10	The Blues have the 6th best 5-on-5 ratio in the League and a new head coach. With 30th ranked PP and 27th ranked PK, maybe their problem was with their assistants.	1.154
	10	4	Los Angeles took a stumble, getting shutout by Edmonton and beat in a SO by Pittsburgh. An even 5-on-5 ratio doesn't speak highly of LA.	1.154
	11	9	The Flames went 2-2 last week, scoring one goal in both losses. They have an even 5-on-5 ratio and an adjusted points per game mark of 1.	1.000
	12	11	Vancouver is still languishing at the bottom tanks to the 24th best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL. They can score, but right now they aren't preventing goals.	0.790
	13	13	The Avalanche may have as many points as Vancouver, but they only have 4 regulation wins. Sitting in 9th place in the Conference is a mirage.	0.694
	14	14	Anaheim went 0-1-2 last week, has the 29th highest 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL, and the 30th highest goals per game. The Ducks need offense.	0.583
	15	15	The Blue Jackets continue to be the bottom of the NHL, with the most goals against per game, 29th ranked PP, 26th most goals per game, 26th highest 5-on-5 ratio, and 28th ranked PK.	0.275

NHL Power Rankings Week 3: Maybe Edmonton v. Washington Was the Game of the Week

This week, the biggest movers were Edmonton, Montreal, and Nashville while Detroit, the Rangers, and Canucks fell the farthest.

The formula looks at non-shootout win point totals per game, and multiplies that by five-on-five goal ratio. The numbers end up between 0 and 2 normally, but in the early season, those numbers are highly volatile.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Capitals lost both games in regulation last week but still maintain the top spot in the entire NHL here.	2.369
	2	2	Buffalo stays in the number two spot despite going 1-2 last week in three home games. The third-best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL helps.	1.716
	3	3	The Maple Leafs hold steady with a 2-2 week, though they can't be happy with a loss in Ottawa.	1.693
	4	4	Philadelphia rounds out the top-4 staying the same with a 2-2 week despite Ilya Bryzgalov being "lost in the woods" for a day.	1.229
	5	11	The Canadiens made a big jump by going 3-1, only giving up six goals. They now have four regulation wins on the year.	1.127
	6	7	Pittsburgh moved up despite only winning one regulation game last week. A negative 5-on-5 ratio doesn't bode well going forward.	1.120
	7	6	The Lightning fell slightly, but their 5-on-5 ratio is even. If only they can get Steve Downie (1 goal, 1 assist) going.	1.091
	8	8	Carolina is staying afloat, even with Eric Staal having 3 goals and 2 assists. But his minus-13 is dragged down by a 0.842 on-ice save percentage.	0.860
	9	10	The Panthers played three one-goal games last week, winning two of them. Still losing the 5-on-5 battle by a good bit though.	0.825
	10	5	New York is a big loser this week thanks to going 1-1-1 and seeing their 5-on-5 ratio fall to 24th best in the league.	0.790
	11	15	The Senators have the second worst 5-on-5 ratio, but they jump to 11th thanks to their success in getting to OT.	0.623
	12	13	Winnipeg only has three wins on the year, but they have a relatively decent 5-on-5 ratio, putting them above NJ and NYI.	0.609
	13	9	The Islanders have the worst 5-on-5 ratio in the league and only three regulation wins. It's a shame, I was excited for them.	0.596
	14	14	New Jersey is one of three teams with only two regulation wins and they have the worst 5-on-5 ratio of the group. But they have three OT games, so they're 28th here.	0.560
	15	12	The Bruins avoid dead last in the NHL because they have as many adjusted points as Columbus in fewer games. Still a decent (21st best) 5-on-5 ratio though.	0.440

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	5	The Sharks climb all the way to the top of the West behind two regulation wins and an OT win. The best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL helps too.	2.041
	2	3	Dallas moves up to the number 2 spot despite going 1-1-1 in regulation last week. The NHL's fifth best 5-on-5 ratio is a big reason why.	1.642
	3	12	The Oilers are the biggest winners of the week, going 4-0 and outscoring their opponents 12-6. Only Pittsburgh has more adjusted points than Edmonton.	1.609
	4	1	Los Angeles crashed quickly, going 1-2-1 last week. They're still tied for third in adjusted points with a good 5-on-5 ratio.	1.451
	5	4	The Blackhawks went 1-1-1 last week and still have Dave Bolland leading them in goals. Pretty impressive when you think about it.	1.443
	6	8	Phoenix is only one point behind the Blackhawks in the adjusted standings, but the 13th best 5-on-5 ratio is what provides the gap here.	1.260
	7	13	The Predators went 2-1 last week, making a big jump up the board. Having Craig Smith lead the team in goals (tied with Sergei Kostitsyn) is a minor problem.	1.177
	8	2	Detroit was the big loser this week, getting outscored 9-3 in three regulation losses last week. They now look decidedly average.	1.111
	9	14	The Flames look decent this year as they sit 12th in 5-on-5 ratio and 16th in adjusted points per game. And Jarome Iginla only has 2 goals and 4 points in 9 games.	1.070
	10	6	St. Louis went 1-2 across Western Canada last week, only being outscored 7-6. Lets see f they maintain the eighth best 5-on-5 ratio in the NHL.	1.064
	11	7	The Canucks went 1-2 last week, finding some 3rd period magic against Washington to salvage their week.	0.910
	12	10	Minnesota only has two regulation wins despite an even 5-on-5 ratio. Being in the bottom-5 in both power play and penalty kill will do that.	0.900
	13	9	The Avalanche went 1-2 last week and are tied with the Rangers here.	0.790
	14	11	Anaheim is tied for 27th in 5-on-5 ratio and went 1-2-1 on the road last week. They stay on the road this week, going to Washington, Rangers, and Detroit.	0.682
	15	15	The Blue Jackets remain in last place in the NHL, despite the 18th best 5-on-5 ratio and a decent 2-2-0 week. Specials teams are killing them, though. Oh, and Steve Mason too.	0.396

NHL Power Rankings Week 2: Washington Is Alone at the Top

Power rankings are back! With a new season comes new rankings, but the same formula. If you recall from last year, the formula looks at non-shootout win point totals per game, and multiplies that by five-on-five goal ratio. The numbers end up between 0 and 2 normally, but in the early season, those numbers are highly volatile.

This week, the biggest movers were Washington, Los Angeles, and San Jose while New Jersey, Anaheim, and Montreal fell the farthest.

In any event, here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	4	The Capitals remain the only undefeated team in the NHL after stomping on Detroit, 7-1.	4.123
	2	3	Buffalo continues to dominate at 5-on-5, thanks to Tomas Vanek having 6 goals in 7 games.	2.500
	3	2	The Maple Leafs are hanging tough, winning five of their first seven games. Phil Kessel has 8 goals in 7 games.	1.643
	4	1	Philadelphia stumbled last week, falling to St. Louis and Washington. Facing Montreal, Winnipeg, and Carolina this week could help.	1.389
	5	7	The Rangers spent last week in Western Canada and went 1-1-1. By Saturday, they'll play 6 straight games against Canadian teams.	1.330
	6	10	Tampa Bay moves up after beating Buffalo and the Islanders and improving their five-on-five ratio.	1.180
	7	9	The Penguins are losing the five-on-five battle but James Neal is currently carrying the Penguins with 8 goals in ten games.	1.157
	8	13	Carolina is giving up over 3.3 goals per game, contributing to their poor 5-on-5 ratio.	0.820
	9	5	The Islanders fell this week after losing big on their trip to Tampa Bay and Florida. A home and home with Pittsburgh lies ahead.	0.730
	10	12	Florida got shutout in back-to-back games, but moved up after beating the slumping Islanders.	0.640
	11	6	The Canadiens have only one win on the year despite a positive 5-on-5 ratio.	0.617
	12	11	Boston is struggling on the power play, only converting on 12.9% of opportunities.	0.581
	13	15	The Jets are starting to collect points, beating Pittsburgh and Carolina while also taking Toronto to a shootout. Still need to improve at 5-on-5.	0.536
	14	8	New Jersey plummets this week after seeing their 5-on-5 ratio drop to 0.50.	0.417
	15	14	The Senators have the worst 5-on-5 ratio in the League and have only killed 69.2% of penalties. They have problems.	0.300