This week, Hawerchuk of Arctic Ice Hockey introduced Fenwick data on his behindthenet.ca site. As a refresher, Fenwick looks at goals, saves, and missed shots and represents them as a percentage of events in favor of the team. Limiting it to tied situations eliminates score effects apparent when teams sit on a lead.
This is a huge deal as Fenwick tied data has a large predictive correlation with future goal ratio. So with that, our power rankings formula gets a makeover.
The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.
Here we go:
|This Week||Last Week||
||The Blues reach the top of the power rankings thanks to the best 5-on-5 ratio and the second best FenTied.
|2||1||Detroit isn't far behind St. Louis, now they just need to get their special teams going.
||The Sharks are 12th in FenTied, but are getting a lot of points and have a good 5-on-5 ratio. They may not be as good as they look, but they're still good.
||Phoenix is still going strong with the 9th best FenTied.
||The Wild have the worst FenTied in the entire league, but they have the sixth best 5-on-5 ratio. They should fall soon.
||Chicago is the opposite of Minnesota. They have the 4th best FenTied but the 15th best five-on-five ratio. They'll improve.
||The Predators moved up despite having the 3rd worst FenTied in the league. They continue to get points despite getting severely outshot.
||Los Angeles is slightly below the middle of the pack, joining Toronto as the definition of mediocre.
||The Oilers aren't as good as they looked earlier, but they are no longer the laughing stock of the league, sitting 17th in FenTied.
||Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton are all fairly similar, but Calgary is getting better shooting luck.
||The Stars are the biggest loser here, partly because of their 25th best FenTied, but they were going to fall regardless due to their luck starting to run out.
||Vancouver has the 7th best FenTied, so they should improve as their shooting luck gets better.
||The Avalanche have the 13th best FenTied, but a horrible 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game marks. Who is this team?
||Columbus gets out of the basement! Their 14th best FenTied pulled them up.
|15||14||The Ducks become the basement tenants thanks to being 29th in FenTied, 30th in five-on-five ratio, and 29th in adjusted points per game.