NHL Power Rankings Week 6: New Formula Brings New Leaders

This week, Hawerchuk of Arctic Ice Hockey introduced Fenwick data on his behindthenet.ca site. As a refresher, Fenwick looks at goals, saves, and missed shots and represents them as a percentage of events in favor of the team. Limiting it to tied situations eliminates score effects apparent when teams sit on a lead.

This is a huge deal as Fenwick tied data has a large predictive correlation with future goal ratio. So with that, our power rankings formula gets a makeover.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
Rating
Bruins_medium 1 4 The Bruins are first in the NHL thanks largely to their league-leading 1.81 five-on-five ratio. They are 8th in FenTied
1.255
Flyers_medium 2 3
Philadelphia moves up thanks to being 1st in the league in adjusted points per game. Their 23rd best FenTied is troublesome, however.
1.079
Canadiens_medium 3 6
The Canadiens are 5th in five-on-five ratio and 11th in FenTied. The wins will come for them.
1.047
Panthers_medium 4
8
Florida may be a surprise here, but they are 5th in the league in FenTied and tied for 9th in adjusted points per game. They look like a legit playoff team.
1.036
Rangers_medium 5
2
The Rangers are one of the teams who lose with the new system thanks to the 26th best FenTied.
1.026
Capitals_medium 6
1
Washington also falls, but not because of the new formula. They are tied for 3rd in FenTied, but are 13th in five-on-five ratio.
1.016
Sabres_medium 7
5
The Sabres rank 21st in FenTied, suggesting they are due for a fall.
0.981
Maple_leafs_medium 8
7
Toronto is definition of mediocre. They are 18th in FenTied, 16th in five-on-five ratio, and 20th in adjusted points per game.
0.930
Penguins_medium 9
9
The Penguins are 6th in the league in FenTied and they are getting Sidney Crosby back. Look out.
0.929
Jets_medium 10
11
Winnipeg is slightly below average, really not all that worse than Toronto, but they aren't getting regulation wins.
0.885
Devils_medium 11
12
The Devils are controlling the play, but they aren't scoring or winning in regulation. Interesting case.
0.852
Lightning_medium 12
10
Tampa Bay has a brutal FenTied, ranking 27th in the league. Yet they still get points. Same as last year?
0.847
Senators_medium 13
15
The Senators get out of the basement thanks to the 16th highest FenTied.
0.825
Hurricanes_medium 14 13 Carolina has a terrible 0.69 five-on-five ratio and looks to be finding a spot in the bottom.
0.754
Islanders_medium 15 14 The Islanders got off to such a promising start, and still have the 22nd best FenTied, but they aren't scoring or getting points.
0.742

 

Western Conference


This Week Last Week Rationale
Rating
Blues_medium 1 2
The Blues reach the top of the power rankings thanks to the best 5-on-5 ratio and the second best FenTied.
1.230
Red_wings_medium 2 1 Detroit isn't far behind St. Louis, now they just need to get their special teams going.
1.185
Sharks_medium 3
7
The Sharks are 12th in FenTied, but are getting a lot of points and have a good 5-on-5 ratio. They may not be as good as they look, but they're still good.
1.165
Coyotes_medium 4
5
Phoenix is still going strong with the 9th best FenTied.
1.048
Wild_medium 5
6
The Wild have the worst FenTied in the entire league, but they have the sixth best 5-on-5 ratio. They should fall soon.
1.007
Blackhawks_medium 6
3
Chicago is the opposite of Minnesota. They have the 4th best FenTied but the 15th best five-on-five ratio. They'll improve.
1.005
Predators_medium 7
8
The Predators moved up despite having the 3rd worst FenTied in the league. They continue to get points despite getting severely outshot.
0.992
Kings_medium 8
9
Los Angeles is slightly below the middle of the pack, joining Toronto as the definition of mediocre.
0.933
Oilers_medium 9
10
The Oilers aren't as good as they looked earlier, but they are no longer the laughing stock of the league, sitting 17th in FenTied.
0.929
Flames_medium 10
11
Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton are all fairly similar, but Calgary is getting better shooting luck.
0.926
Stars_medium 11
4
The Stars are the biggest loser here, partly because of their 25th best FenTied, but they were going to fall regardless due to their luck starting to run out.
0.892
Canucks_medium 12
12
Vancouver has the 7th best FenTied, so they should improve as their shooting luck gets better.
0.886
Avalanche_medium 13
13
The Avalanche have the 13th best FenTied, but a horrible 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game marks. Who is this team?
0.776
Blue_jackets_medium 14
15
Columbus gets out of the basement! Their 14th best FenTied pulled them up.
0.713
Ducks_medium 15 14 The Ducks become the basement tenants thanks to being 29th in FenTied, 30th in five-on-five ratio, and 29th in adjusted points per game.
0.691

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