NHL Power Rankings Week 16: Red Wings Fall, Blues Up Top in the West

This week, Montreal's 7-2 romp of Detroit results in the Red Wings falling out of first for the first time in over two months.

New this week are Playoff Probabilities according to Fear the Fin, listed in our rationale. These probabilities are based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick published by Broad Street Hockey's Eric T. As you'll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
Rating
Bruins_medium 1 1 The Bruins may not even entertain the possibility of trading Tim Thomas, but their fans are. (Playoff Probability 99.8%) 1.270
Rangers_medium 2 2
New York is showing how deep their blueline is. (Playoff Probability 98.5%) 1.125
Flyers_medium 3 3
The Flyers are getting more than they expected out of Max Talbot. (Playoff Probability 98.4%)
1.014
Penguins_medium 4
4
Pittsburgh has an underrated player in Chris Kunitz. (Playoff Probability 99.1%) 0.993
Capitals_medium 5
6
The Capitals may not be as good as they appear here, but that Southeast Division sure is helping them. (Playoff Probability 63.0%) 0.966
Maple_leafs_medium 6
7
Toronto is getting more out of Joffrey Lupul than they could have expected, especially when you consider how terrifying his illness was. (Playoff Probability 52.9%) 0.944
Senators_medium 7
5
The Senators may be interested in acquiring Jeff Carter. They do need a top-six scorer. (Playoff Probability 73.5%) 0.942
Canadiens_medium 8
10
Montreal made a large jump mostly because they destroyed the Red Wings right before the All-Star Break. (Playoff Probability 17.1%) 0.911
Panthers_medium 9
9
The Panthers have rather high odds of making the playoffs, mostly thanks to their weak division. (Playoff Probability 67.7%) 0.895
Jets_medium 10
10
Winnipeg was outscored 5-1 in two losses last week, but they have an outside shot to sneak into the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 35.2%) 0.878
Lightning_medium 11
12
The Lightning are going to be good sooner than later, so all those abandoning ship should think before leaving. (Playoff Probability 8.9%) 0.876
Devils_medium 12
11
New Jersey has a Zach Parise problem, but they'd be stupid to trade him this year. (Playoff Probability 70.8%) 0.875
Sabres_medium 13
13
The Sabres are left wondering what is wrong with their team. The answer is: "a lot." (Playoff Probability 3.3%) 0.819
Hurricanes_medium 14 15 Carolina extended Tim Gleason with a four year, $16 million deal, likely removing him from the trading block. (Playoff Probability 2.0%) 0.811
Islanders_medium 15 14 The Islanders have learned that Evgeni Nabokov prefers one-on-one situations. (Playoff Probability 9.7%) 0.800

Western Conference


This Week Last Week Rationale
Rating
Blues_medium 1 2
The Blues lost to Detroit 3-1, and yet still moved ahead of them. They can thank Montreal. (Playoff Probability 99.9%) 1.206
Red_wings_medium 2 1 Detroit falls out of first in the West for the first time since week 6. A 7-2 loss to Montreal will do that. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)
1.204
Sharks_medium 3
3
The Sharks have a much improved fourth line this year, and it will help them down the stretch. (Playoff Probability 97.9%) 1.081
Canucks_medium 4
4
Vancouver is curious how they can get better. Scary. (Playoff Probability 99.1%) 1.056
Blackhawks_medium 5
5
The Blackhawks have a new centerman, but Brendan Morrison isn't exactly a difference maker. (Playoff Probability 98.3%)
1.014
Predators_medium 6
8
Nashville is now faced with Ryan Suter refusing to sign an extension before the trade deadline. GM David Poile is in a tough spot. (Playoff Probability 74.9%) 0.936
Stars_medium 7
6
The Stars no longer have any excuses: It's time to win some hockey games. (Playoff Probability 48.7%) 0.927
Kings_medium 8
9
Los Angeles needs a scorer, but who is going to be their trade bait? (Playoff Probability 78.3%) 0.925
Coyotes_medium 9
7
The Coyotes take a stumble despite beating Ottawa 3-2, and they face a difficult road to the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 23.6%) 0.921
Flames_medium 10
10
Calgary is entertaining the possibility of adding Jeff Carter to their team. What does Jarome Iginla think? (Playoff Probability 16.6%) 0.874
Wild_medium 11
11
The Wild got Guillaume Latendresse back at practice, which will help. (Playoff Probability 19.4%) 0.871
Avalanche_medium 12
12
Colorado has a good chance at making the playoffs, but they still don't know if they will be buying or selling at the deadline. (Playoff Probability 42.0%) 0.844
Ducks_medium 13
13
The Ducks have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs even after an 8-1-1 run. (Playoff Probability 0.9%) 0.819
Oilers_medium 14
14
Edmonton is stuck in a never-ending rebuild. That must be extremely frustrating. (Playoff Probability 0.5%) 0.798
Blue_jackets_medium 15 15 The Blue Jackets did not make the playoffs once under Fear the Fin's simulations, but they did see their owner write an apology letter to their fans. (Playoff Probability 0.0%) 0.755

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