SB Nation Philly - NHL Power Rankings Week 23: Down the Stretch They Come

NHL Power Rankings Week 23: Down the Stretch They Come

2012-03-29T02:17:22Z

This week, Buffalo's surge begins to appear while San Jose's return to the top of the Pacific coincides with a rise here.

The Power Ranking Rating is arrived at through a formula which includes the teams' adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime, regardless of outcome, count for one point) and Score-Adjusted Fenwick. The two are weighted, giving strong preference to Score-Adjusted Fenwick, while also factoring in how successful a team has been at winning games in 60 minutes.

At the end is each team's magic number - the number of games they must win to clinch a playoff berth - according to playoffstatus.com.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
Penguins_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Penguins_medium" />	1	1	The Penguins are going to have to wait until the summer to fil their need for a backup goalie. (Clinched)	1.040
Rangers_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Rangers_medium" />	2	2	New York realizes how important it is to win the Atlantic, if for no other reason than avoiding the Flyers in the first round. (Clinched)	1.032
	3	3	The Flyers are going to be without Ilya Bryzgalov, who has a bone chip in his foot. But it's supposedly not serious. (Clinched)	0.998
Bruins_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Bruins_medium" />	4	4	Boston is creating a mock-80s sitcom revolving around their mascot. The preview looks amazing. (Magic Number - 1)	0.954
Senators_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513675/Senators_medium.png" />	5	5	The Senators, despite having a very good year, can't stop marveling at former-goalie Brian Elliott. (Magic Number - 4)	0.867
Panthers_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752407/Panthers_medium.png" />	6	6	Florida offered Jason Garrison $2.5 million, but he rejected it. Is he worth $4 million per? He thinks so. (Magic Number - 3)	0.864
Devils_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Devils_medium" />	7	8	The Devils are debating whether they should give up their 1st round pick as part of their Kovalchuk punishment this year. (Magic Number - 2)	0.845
Capitals_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513703/Capitals_medium.png" />	8	7	Washington came out flat against Buffalo in a battle for 8th place, losing 5-1. (Tragic Number - 5)	0.838
Sabres_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Sabres_medium" />	9	11	The Sabres have come all the way back and are now in control of their own playoff destiny. (Magic Number - 5)	0.800
Jets_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Jets_medium" />	10	9	Winnipeg is just the latest team struggling to understand why Randy Jones continues to get ice time. (Tragic Number - 3)	0.790
Hurricanes_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Hurricanes_medium" />	11	10	The Hurricanes need Jeff Skinner to stay on the ice and out of the box. (Tragic Number - 1)	0.769
Lightning_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752411/Lightning_medium.png" />	12	12	Tampa Bay won the J.T. Brown sweepstakes, but he's going to be a free agent again next summer. (Tragic Number - 2)	0.739
	13	13	The Maple Leafs appear to already have checked out, which makes sense since they're eliminated. (Eliminated)	0.698
Islanders_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513651/Islanders_medium.png" />	14	14	New York is taking an early look at who they could target in the draft. Can't blame them. (Eliminated)	0.692
Canadiens_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513719/Canadiens_medium.png" />	15	15	The Canadiens have a 90% chance of getting a top-3 pick this year. What are they going to do with it? (Eliminated)	0.663

Western Conference

	This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
	1	1	The Blues no longer have a spot for B.J. Crombeen. Looking at his fall. (Clinched)	1.149
	2	2	Detroit has a truly amazing player in Pavel Datsyuk. Even his interviews are fantastic. (Clinched)	1.054
Canucks_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513755/Canucks_medium.png" />	3	3	The Canucks are asking their fans not to riot. This is both good and sad. (Clinched)	1.033
	4	4	Chicago lost Duncan Keith for 5 games as a result of his elbow to the head of Daniel Sedin. (Magic Number - 2)	0.960
	5	7	The Sharks are going from out of the playoffs to division leaders after what seems like each game. (Magic Number - 4)	0.896
Predators_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752447/Predators_medium.png" />	6	5	Nashville is benefiting from Maritn Erat's great, possibly even career, year. (Clinched)	0.887
Kings_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/752464/Kings_medium.png" />	7	6	The Kings still have a difficult path ahead of themselves. (Magic Number - 5)	0.884
	8	8	Dallas doesn't miss Nicklas Grossmann, arguing that they have actually improved since trading him. (Magic Number - 4)	0.843
Coyotes_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513787/Coyotes_medium.png" />	9	9	The Coyotes are getting Shane Doan back for the final stretch of games. (Magic Number - 5)	0.823
	10	10	Calgary is going to use the rest of this season as a snapshot of their recent, poor history. (Tragic Number - 4)	0.810
Avalanche_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/513767/Avalanche_medium.png" />	11	11	The Avalanche have retained their GM and their coach for next season. (Tragic Number - 4)	0.788
	12	12	Anaheim is asking whether Teemu Selanne will play one more year. Teemu Selanne should play one more year. (Tragic Number - 1)	0.736
	13	13	The Oilers lost Taylor Hall to shoulder surgery, an injury he has had for years. (Eliminated)	0.665
	14	14	Minnesota is looking at a high draft pick again. (Eliminated)	0.598
	15	15	The Blue Jackets finally signed a goalie! Shawn Hunwick went from Michigan to backup NHL goalie the same day. (Eliminated)	0.503

NHL Power Rankings Week 22: Pittsburgh Is Really, Really Good

2012-03-20T23:46:11Z

This week, Pittsburgh jumps to the top of the East as Boston plummets. No, it's not the Sidney Crosby effect. It's the Score-Adjusted Fenwick.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T, and incorporated in the Power Ranking Rating.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	3	The Penguins...Sidney Crosby! Really, that's it. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.045
2	2	New York clinched a playoff berth, the first team in the East to do so. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.031
3	4	The Flyers lost Andrej Meszaros to back surgery, ending his season. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.010
4	1	Boston beat Toronto 8-0. Yeah, it was bad. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	0.942
5	5	The Senators are getting great production out of Ben Bishop, making his acquisition one of the best of the deadline. (Playoff Probability 94.4%)	0.876
6	9	Florida is once again receiving solid goaltending, something they've had their entire existence. (Playoff Probability 96.3%)	0.869
7	6	The Capitals are crashing the net, and Mathieu Perreault is one of the biggest culprits. (Playoff Probability 65.6%)	0.842
8	7	New Jersey didn't quite get the Enforcer aspect right. (Playoff Probability 99.7%)	0.841
9	8	The Jets have one of the largest home/road splits of anyone in awhile. (Playoff Probability 23.5%)	0.813
10	12	Carolina lost Jeff Skinner to a suspension for kicking. Yup. (Playoff Probability 0.4%)	0.767
11	11	The Sabres lost Tyler Myers to a suspension for boarding. (Playoff Probability 19.2%)	0.752
12	10	Tampa Bay is going through injuries, but they have clearly defined jobs for their call-ups. (Playoff Probability 0.5%)	0.736
13	13	The Maple Leafs are a sad, sad bunch. But they provide some solid humor, like this video parody. (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.724
14	15	New York is a bad franchise. This much is obvious. But Larry Brooks doesn't really know why this is true. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.675
15	14	The Canadiens are revisiting whether letting Saku Koivu go and acquiring Scott Gomez was a smart move. It wasn't. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.670

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	2	The Blues lost to the Hurricanes, which is bad. But haikus always cheer people up! (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.154
2	1	Detroit is going to be without Jimmy Howard again. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.034
3	3	The Canucks may be better than last year's version. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.014
4	6	Chicago is getting solid production out of Patrick Sharp and Viktor Stalberg. (Playoff Probability 98.8%)	0.951
5	5	The Predators are getting Alexander Radulov soon. He's already in the States. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	0.902
6	9	Los Angeles does not have an easy road to the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 59.3%)	0.893
7	4	The Sharks are looking closely at themselves to see why they are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. (Playoff Probability 65.9%)	0.887
8	8	Dallas got Sheldon Souray and Radek Dvorak back from injury. They rejoiced. (Playoff Probability 70.4%)	0.858
9	7	The Coyotes have had their share of troubles lately, including giving up early goals. (Playoff Probability 45.4%)	0.831
10	11	Calgary is questioning whether Jarome Iginla is worthy of a Hart Trophy nomination. (Playoff Probability 15.6%)	0.808
11	10	The Avalanche want heart over skill. This is supposedly a winning formula. (Playoff Probability 44.7%)	0.798
12	12	Anaheim still offers a few reasons to keep watching. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.740
13	13	The Oilers are once again playing spoilers in the West. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.634
14	14	Minnesota is not happy Ryan Kesler avoided a suspension for clipping Cal Clutterbuck. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.622
15	15	The Blue Jackets are going to be without Curtis Sanford and James Wismiewski again, and neither injury sounds good. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.513

NHL Power Rankings Week 21: A Shuffle Atop the East

2012-03-13T10:00:19Z

This week, the top four in the East shuffled amongst themselves while the Sharks continue to rank highly here but remain on the playoff bubble.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T. As you’ll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	2	The Bruins just passed the one year anniversary of the day Marc Savard's life changed. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.098
2	1	New York is starting to get what they paid for out of Brad Richards. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.088
3	4	The Penguins look to get Sidney Crosby back, and thoughts of Malkin/Crosby/Staal has fans excited. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.036
4	3	Philadelphia is looking at yet another college free agent, J.T. Brown. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.015
5	5	The Senators are almost guaranteed a playoff spot, yet they still can't help looking ahead toward the draft. (Playoff Probability 95.8%)	0.959
6	6	Washington lost Mike Green to a 3 game suspension. (Playoff Probability 62.0%)	0.959
7	8	The Devils may have the Calder Trophy winner in Adam Henrique. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	0.935
8	7	Winnipeg is starting to love Tanner Glass. It should be contagious. (Playoff Probability 30.3%)	0.913
9	9	The Panthers are leading the Southeast Division. Mock the Division, they're in 3rd in the Conference. (Playoff Probability 78.0%)	0.899
10	10	Tampa Bay has goaltending problems. Here are many new ways to judge exactly that. (Playoff Probability 7.6%)	0.884
11	12	The Sabres are spreading their difficult minutes by not letting many people take them on. (Playoff Probability 18.0%)	0.874
12	13	Carolina went 1-1-2 in four road games last week. And they improved on their ranking. (Playoff Probability 1.2%)	0.861
13	11	The Maple Leafs are once again looking at a top-10 draft pick. That could be okay. (Playoff Probability 5.9%)	0.859
14	14	Montreal is already preparing for yet another GM. (Playoff Probability 0.1%)	0.845
15	15	The Islanders are watching MIchael Grabner take fewer shots. That's slightly troubling. (Playoff Probability 0.4%)	0.798

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Red Wings need to remind themselves that Ken Holland knows what he's doing. You should remind yourself too. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.223
2	2	St. Louis is playing really, really well right now. So much so that they have to keep an even keel. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.203
3	3	The Canucks are struggling with complacency and expectations. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.053
4	4	San Jose is struggling to stay in the playoff picture and Jeremy Roenick is still calling out Patrick Marleau. (Playoff Probability 68.9%)	0.992
5	5	The Predators are getting excited about former first round pick Alexander Radulov possibly coming over to the NHL. (Playoff Probability 99.6%)	0.968
6	6	Chicago is hoping to get Jonathan Toews back soon and it's looking like they will. (Playoff Probability 94.4%)	0.961
7	7	The Coyotes have been getting great goaltending from Mike Smith all year, and he was named one of the NHL's three stars of February. (Playoff Probability 61.3%)	0.960
8	8	Dallas got a boost as their Captain Brendan Morrow returned from injury. (Playoff Probability 91.2%)	0.957
9	9	The Kings have seen their goals for spike and their goals against plummet in the small-sample-size of post-Johnson for Carter. (Playoff Probability 31.3%)	0.912
10	10	Colorado has a chance to sneak into the playoffs, but it won't be easy. (Playoff Probability 34.4%)	0.893
11	12	The Flames also have a chance to make the playoffs. It's an even smaller chance, but it's there. (Playoff Probability 18.4%)	0.883
12	11	Anaheim is without Corey Perry after Stephane Robidas hit him into the boards awkwardly. (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.879
13	13	The Oilers celebrate year two - that's it?? - of their rebuilding plan. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.821
14	14	Minnesota has a clear goal: "Don't win, but don't look stupid losing." (Playoff Probability 0.3%)	0.784
15	15	The Blue Jackets are considering their options with the first overall pick, including... trading it? (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.742

NHL Power Rankings Week 20: New York and Detroit Make Their Case

2012-03-06T13:02:25Z

Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans and internet wasn’t available immediately.

This week, the biggest movers were Winnipeg and Colorado while the Rangers overtook Boston for first in the East.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	2	The Rangers overtook Boston and they did it without trading Chris Kreider for Rick Nash. More on Kreider. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.128
2	1	Boston lost Tuukka Rask to a groin injury and replaced him with Marty Turco. Ouch. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	1.103
3	3	The Flyers are now without defensemen Kimmo Timonen and Andrej Meszaros, on top of losing Chris Pronger. Not good.(Playoff Probability 98.6%)	1.011
4	4	Pittsburgh is no longer subject to the "But you have Matt Cooke" retort. Seriously. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.010
5	5	The Senators need to figure out what to do in goal, with two rookies and Alex Auld. (Playoff Probability 86.6%)	0.945
6	5	Washington was wondering if they had turned a corner on their possession metrics. It doesn’t look like it. (Playoff Probability 41.6%)	0.937
7	12	The Jets have an awful penalty kill. A look at why. (Playoff Probability 41.9%)	0.912
8	10	New Jersey is seeing some funny things happen with their shooting percentages this year. (Playoff Probability 96.7%)	0.905
9	8	The Panthers went 2-2 last week included an embarrassing 7-0 loss in Winnipeg. (Playoff Probability 73.1%)	0.904
10	11	Tampa Bay is wondering how their Keith Aulie acquisition will play out. (Playoff Probability 20.3%)	0.896
11	6	The Maple Leafs are hoping new coach Randy Carlyle brings with him a new line structure. (Playoff Probability 16.2%)	0.888
12	13	Buffalo is dreaming of actually making the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 21.3%)	0.887
13	14	The Hurricanes enjoyed themselves a Casino Night for charity. (Playoff Probability 1.7%)	0.860
14	7	Montreal scored three goals in three games, losing all three last week. Just awful. (Playoff Probability 0.2%)	0.837
15	15	The Islanders are hoping their guys can show who they are and how they fit in for the future. (Playoff Probability 2.1%)	0.806

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	2	The Red Wings are really good at even strength, but they’re also really good on special teams. Shocker, I know. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.231
2	1	St. Louis has a Canada-hater in David Backes. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.181
3	4	The Canucks are wondering where the Sedin twins have gone. (Playoff Probability 100%)	1.068
4	3	San Jose is getting a great season out of Joe Thornton, possibly the best season out of him. (Playoff Probability 81.8%)	1.007
5	7	The Predators saw GM David Poile make some big moves for them at the deadline. Nashville’s serious. (Playoff Probability 97.4%)	0.971
6	6	Chicago is seeing Patrick Kane step up for them when they most need him. (Playoff Probability 88.3%)	0.967
7	5	The Coyotes beat Vancouver then lost to Columbus. While it doesn’t make sense, it’s not a reason to worry. (Playoff Probability 72.6%)	0.961
8	8	Dallas needs to avoid another late-season collapse. (Playoff Probability 60.9%)	0.952
9	9	The Kings saw Mike Richards assist on a Jeff Carter goal. Not once, but twice. (Playoff Probability 54.9%)	0.926
10	13	Colorado might actually, just maybe, could make the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 26.2%)	0.877
11	12	The Ducks are somehow still thinking playoffs. (Playoff Probability 2.0%)	0.876
12	10	Calgary is questioning whether they should re-sign head coach Brent Sutter. (Playoff Probability 13.5%)	0.866
13	14	The Oilers are making their fans wonder if they’ll win a Cup in their lifetime. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.833
14	11	Minnesota is asking if this current team is their worst ever. Remember when they were in 1st place? (Playoff Probability 2.4%)	0.805
15	15	The Blue Jackets are still trying to recover from the trade deadline, where their team somehow got even worse. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.731

NHL Power Rankings Week 18: Coyotes Make a Move, Blues Still Atop NHL

2012-02-14T02:45:28Z

Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans.

This week, Phoenix jumped up four spots while New Jersey moved up two.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Bruins remain in first despite going 0-1-1 last week, including a 6-0 loss to Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.177
2	2	New York is the latest team to entertain the possibility of trading for Jeff Carter. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.127
3	3	The Flyers have been losing lately and Kimmo Timonen is decidedly not happy. (Playoff Probability 95%)	1.005
4	4	Pittsburgh saw Jordan Staal score in his return from a knee injury. (Playoff Probability 96%)	0.980
5	5	The Capitals are left hoping that Nicklas Backstrom can return before the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 65%)	0.956
6	6	Toronto is stalling and wondering if they need to make a move. (Playoff Probability 57%)	0.937
7	8	The Canadiens had a pretty bad first half, so it's worth looking at what went wrong. (Playoff Probability 9%)	0.921
8	9	Florida has a favorable schedule ahead of them, making a Southeast Division title possible. (Playoff Probability 87%)	0.918
9	7	The Senators are seeing coach MacLean use Daniel Alfredsson in optimal situations. (Playoff Probability 54%)	0.914
10	12	New Jersey is wondering what will happen during their playoff push. (Playoff Probability 89%)	0.898
11	11	The Lightning went 1-2-1 last week, only managing a 2-1 win over Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 13%)	0.891
12	10	Winnipeg may be the healthiest they've been all season. (Playoff Probability 22%)	0.874
13	13	The Sabres have seen Ryan Miller go on a tear of late, making 7 goals in 5 games enough to get 7 points. (Playoff Probability 6%)	0.855
14	14	Carolina went out West and lost overtime games to Anaheim and Colorado. (Playoff Probability 1%)	0.844
15	15	The Islanders aren't going to make the playoffs, so they should trade goalie Evgeni Nabokov. (Playoff Probability 6%)	0.808

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Blues are in love with themselves. For good reason, actually. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.231
2	2	Detroit has now won 20 straight home games. Asterisk or no, that's impressive. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.205
3	3	The Sharks have seen their power play regress, and why that's good. (Playoff Probability 94%)	1.080
4	4	Vancouver went 1-0-2 last week, splitting the two shootouts they played. (Playoff Probability 99%)	1.051
5	9	The Coyotes may see Jeremy Roenick as a savior of their days in Phoenix. (Playoff Probability 98.3%)	0.965
6	5	Chicago is reeling, but there's some simple solutions. (Playoff Probability 62%)	0.956
7	6	The Predators were not happy with their effort against Boston.(Playoff Probability 95%)	0.942
8	7	Dallas is seeing Alex Goligoski start to rack up the points, comforting with his new contract. (Playoff Probability 38%)	0.919
9	8	The Kings may be running out of patience with Dean Lombardi. (Playoff Probability 52%)	0.915
10	10	Calgary is told Mikael Backlund is a bust. Calgary proceeds to explain why that is ludicrous. (Playoff Probability 42%)	0.866
11	11	The Wild still can't decide if they're buying or selling. Still? (Playoff Probability 24%)	0.859
12	13	Anaheim saw GM Bob Murray take a thinly veiled shot at Brian Burke, claiming Burke left the system in shambles. (Playoff Probability 3%)	0.845
13	12	The Avalanche don't expect to be very active at the deadline, setting up a fairly similar team next year. (Playoff Probability 32%)	0.844
14	14	Edmonton resigned Andy Sutton, presumably taking another defenseman off the trade block. (Playoff Probability 2%)	0.814
15	15	The Blue Jackets aren't helping Ryan Johansen in his rookie year, suggesting the whole team is just miserable. (Playoff Probability 0%)	0.740

NHL Power Rankings Week 16: Red Wings Fall, Blues Up Top in the West

2012-01-31T11:00:21Z

This week, Montreal's 7-2 romp of Detroit results in the Red Wings falling out of first for the first time in over two months.

New this week are Playoff Probabilities according to Fear the Fin, listed in our rationale. These probabilities are based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick published by Broad Street Hockey's Eric T. As you'll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Bruins may not even entertain the possibility of trading Tim Thomas, but their fans are. (Playoff Probability 99.8%)	1.270
2	2	New York is showing how deep their blueline is. (Playoff Probability 98.5%)	1.125
3	3	The Flyers are getting more than they expected out of Max Talbot. (Playoff Probability 98.4%)	1.014
4	4	Pittsburgh has an underrated player in Chris Kunitz. (Playoff Probability 99.1%)	0.993
5	6	The Capitals may not be as good as they appear here, but that Southeast Division sure is helping them. (Playoff Probability 63.0%)	0.966
6	7	Toronto is getting more out of Joffrey Lupul than they could have expected, especially when you consider how terrifying his illness was. (Playoff Probability 52.9%)	0.944
7	5	The Senators may be interested in acquiring Jeff Carter. They do need a top-six scorer. (Playoff Probability 73.5%)	0.942
8	10	Montreal made a large jump mostly because they destroyed the Red Wings right before the All-Star Break. (Playoff Probability 17.1%)	0.911
9	9	The Panthers have rather high odds of making the playoffs, mostly thanks to their weak division. (Playoff Probability 67.7%)	0.895
10	10	Winnipeg was outscored 5-1 in two losses last week, but they have an outside shot to sneak into the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 35.2%)	0.878
11	12	The Lightning are going to be good sooner than later, so all those abandoning ship should think before leaving. (Playoff Probability 8.9%)	0.876
12	11	New Jersey has a Zach Parise problem, but they'd be stupid to trade him this year. (Playoff Probability 70.8%)	0.875
13	13	The Sabres are left wondering what is wrong with their team. The answer is: "a lot." (Playoff Probability 3.3%)	0.819
14	15	Carolina extended Tim Gleason with a four year, $16 million deal, likely removing him from the trading block. (Playoff Probability 2.0%)	0.811
15	14	The Islanders have learned that Evgeni Nabokov prefers one-on-one situations. (Playoff Probability 9.7%)	0.800

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	2	The Blues lost to Detroit 3-1, and yet still moved ahead of them. They can thank Montreal. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	1.206
2	1	Detroit falls out of first in the West for the first time since week 6. A 7-2 loss to Montreal will do that. (Playoff Probability 99.9%)	1.204
3	3	The Sharks have a much improved fourth line this year, and it will help them down the stretch. (Playoff Probability 97.9%)	1.081
4	4	Vancouver is curious how they can get better. Scary. (Playoff Probability 99.1%)	1.056
5	5	The Blackhawks have a new centerman, but Brendan Morrison isn't exactly a difference maker. (Playoff Probability 98.3%)	1.014
6	8	Nashville is now faced with Ryan Suter refusing to sign an extension before the trade deadline. GM David Poile is in a tough spot. (Playoff Probability 74.9%)	0.936
7	6	The Stars no longer have any excuses: It's time to win some hockey games. (Playoff Probability 48.7%)	0.927
8	9	Los Angeles needs a scorer, but who is going to be their trade bait? (Playoff Probability 78.3%)	0.925
9	7	The Coyotes take a stumble despite beating Ottawa 3-2, and they face a difficult road to the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 23.6%)	0.921
10	10	Calgary is entertaining the possibility of adding Jeff Carter to their team. What does Jarome Iginla think? (Playoff Probability 16.6%)	0.874
11	11	The Wild got Guillaume Latendresse back at practice, which will help. (Playoff Probability 19.4%)	0.871
12	12	Colorado has a good chance at making the playoffs, but they still don't know if they will be buying or selling at the deadline. (Playoff Probability 42.0%)	0.844
13	13	The Ducks have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs even after an 8-1-1 run. (Playoff Probability 0.9%)	0.819
14	14	Edmonton is stuck in a never-ending rebuild. That must be extremely frustrating. (Playoff Probability 0.5%)	0.798
15	15	The Blue Jackets did not make the playoffs once under Fear the Fin's simulations, but they did see their owner write an apology letter to their fans. (Playoff Probability 0.0%)	0.755

NHL Power Rankings Week 15: Nashville Leaps Up While Boston Survives Gauntlet

2012-01-24T11:00:10Z

This week, Nashville shot up four spots to number eight while both Ottawa and Anaheim moved up two positions.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Bruins got through a tough weekend with back-to-back games against the Rangers and Flyers, but lost Nathan Horton to a concussion.	1.305
2	2	New York is still suffering in possession metrics due to a bad start to the year, but they are improving quickly.	1.093
3	3	The Flyers added Danny Briere to their list of concussed players, but they still keep winning.	1.011
4	4	Pittsburgh is all about Evgeni Malkin right now. The NHL's first star of the week had 5 goals and 2 assists (plus two shootout goals) in four games.	0.994
5	7	The Senators are already looking towards an easier schedule after the break and the sixth seed in the East.	0.963
6	6	Washington is barely hanging onto the final playoff spot in the East and part of the problem is their road record.	0.955
7	5	The Maple Leafs got a hat trick out of Lee Stempniak, and the internet got to laugh at his crazy, angry brother.	0.922
8	8	Winnipeg went 2-1-1 against some mediocre teams, but a 5-1 loss to New Jersey looks bad.	0.902
9	9	The Panthers went 0-1-3, taking Boston to a shootout and winning one against Winnipeg.	0.899
10	10	Montreal got three points over the weekend, beating Toronto and losing to Pittsburgh in a shootout, salvaging their dim playoff hopes.	0.894
11	12	The Devils acquired oft-traveled Alexei Ponikarovsky and saw him score in his first game for New Jersey.	0.876
12	13	Tampa Bay went 3-0-0 last week, beating Boston, Dallas, and Phoenix. That's a very good week for a struggling Tampa Bay team.	0.866
13	11	The Sabres need to win 60% of their remaining games just to have a 35% chance of making the playoffs. Math sucks sometimes.	0.817
14	15	New York believes John Tavares is one of the NHL's 25 best players under 25, and here's a good rebuttal for why he should be included .	0.814
15	14	The Hurricanes had a good week, going 2-0-2 despite only scoring seven goals all week.	0.802

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Red Wings beat the Blues 3-1 last night, but it was their fans who got to laugh at crazy things said by Blues fans all week.	1.240
2	2	St. Louis went 3-1-0 last week, only losing to Detroit last night. Still the second best team in the West.	1.224
3	3	The Sharks are getting points against playoff teams at a better rate than any Western Conference team not in Minnesota.	1.074
4	4	Vancouver doesn't like to admit that Roberto Luongo is a very good goaltender, but it's still true.	1.052
5	5	The Blackhawks went 2-1-0 last week, beating up on Buffalo and Florida, but losing big to Nashville.	1.027
6	6	Dallas just signed Alex Goligoski to a four year contract worth $4.6 million per season.	0.918
7	7	The Coyotes went 1-2-1 last week and now sit in 12th place in the West. They're better than that.	0.912
8	12	Nashville went 4-1-0 last week, outscoring their opposition 15-4 in their wins (they lost to the Rangers 3-0), and saw Kevin Klein score on a knuckler from the blueline.	0.912
9	8	The Kings are currently in 7th in the West, and they also happen to be on the necessary pace to make the playoffs.	0.910
10	9	Calgary still thinks they could make the playoffs, but at least that's better than thinking they could compete in the playoffs.	0.885
11	10	The Wild are finally talking about who to dump at the trade deadline.	0.866
12	12	Colorado went 1-2-1 last week, beating the Kings in regulation and Florida in overtime.	0.845
13	15	The Ducks have not lost in regulation in 8 games, but they're so far back, they still have no shot of making the playoffs.	0.837
14	13	Edmonton thinks they've got all of the pieces to make a run at the playoffs. Yes, that's almost a direct quote.	0.799
15	14	The Blue Jackets are sticking with the two men at the top of their organization, even if most don't understand why.	0.767

NHL Power Rankings Week 14: Bruins and Rangers Poised For Saturday Showdown

2012-01-18T11:00:20Z

This week, Nashville made a big jump up in the West while Toronto fell two spots in the East.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Bruins are still playing fantastic hockey, but what's even scarier is looking at the spare parts hitting free agency this summer.	1.357
2	2	New York is in first place in the East, but with a date against Boston on the horizon, they need to stay focused.	1.109
3	3	The Flyers have been getting some big contributions out of Sean Couturier lately.	1.022
4	4	Pittsburgh is doing well, but they're injured. Imagine if they weren't.	0.978
5	6	The Capitals went 3-1-0 last week (but just got shutout by the Islanders Tuesday night), giving Caps fans some hope.	0.960
6	7	Ottawa is making a charge up the standings, thanks in large part to Craig Anderson.	0.952
7	5	The Maple Leafs stumbled a bit, going 1-2-0 last week. The 3-2 loss to the Sabres hurts.	0.935
8	8	Winnipeg has turned out to be a surprisingly average NHL team, which is certainly better than not having a team at all.	0.911
9	9	The Panthers went 1-1-1 last week, but it has to be considered a positive when playing Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Boston.	0.908
10	10	Montreal sees their fans giving up on the season with them 8 points out of a playoff spot.	0.889
11	12	The Devils are struggling, so it's time they start to consider what they could get for Zach Parise.	0.871
12	11	Buffalo is in a tailspin, going 1-5-1 in their last seven, getting shutout three times in that span.	0.855
13	13	The Lightning are facing demands to overhaul their organization, but Steve Yzerman was brought in for just that. Tampa needs patience.	0.822
14	14	Carolina went 2-2 last week, understandable with games against Philly, Boston, and Washington. A good week for them.	0.797
15	15	The Islanders saw Rick DiPietro hurt himself while on IR, and will miss the rest of the season after abdominal surgery.	0.783

Western Conference

This Week	Last Week	Rationale	Rating
1	1	The Red Wings went 1-1-2 last week, which makes them 2-2-3 over the last two. SLUMP!	1.252
2	2	St. Louis saw T.J. Oshie score a beautiful goal en route to a 2-1-1 week.	1.196
3	3	The Sharks have a few weaknesses, but when you list them next to the positives? They're minor complaints.	1.129
4	4	Vancouver is turning on Ryan Kesler, but luckily there's a voice of ~~reason~~ anger to tell people to knock it off.	1.044
5	5	The Blackhawks went 3-0-1 last week, beating up on Minnesota and Columbus before beating S.J. and losing to Detroit in OT.	1.014
6	6	Dallas is starting to fear for their playoff lives, since effort isn't enough in their roller-coaster season.	0.951
7	7	The Coyotes are in a bit of a slide, going 1-1-2 last week and only winning twice in the last eleven tries, but it's not time to panic yet.	0.939
8	8	Los Angeles went 2-0-2, which helps keep them in the playoff picture, but an OT loss to Edmonton kept this from being a great week.	0.915
9	12	The Predators made a big jump, going 3-0-1 last week thanks two three games against the Avalanche and Islanders. Still, get those points.	0.904
10	9	Calgary reacquired Mike Cammalleri after the Canadiens exiled him. The hope is that he helps them at least make the playoffs.	0.877
11	10	The Wild keep falling and their once-optimistic fans are now resigned to the fact that the season is over and trades need to happen.	0.865
12	11	Colorado went 1-2-1 last week against Nashville, Dallas, and Phoenix, failing to show they belong on the playoff bubble.	0.830
13	13	The Oilers went 0-1-2 on a three-game homestand against New Jersey, Anaheim, and L.A. That's not good at all.	0.829
14	15	Anaheim went 3-0-1 last week with a big win over Vancouver. It was enough to surpass Columbus.	0.792
15	14	The Blue Jackets are really struggling, and for those who are visual learners, here is a great look at why.	0.764