The NFL continues it's slate of Thursday night games this week, with a surprisingly interesting matchup. Not really from a betting standpoint (more on that in a sec) but from a storylines perspective it is. Obviously everyone has an opinion on Tim Tebow and Thursday night is the first chance a lot of people will get to see him play (in the NFL). The question is, with a national audience, will he be able to complete more than two passes?
And then there's of course the Jets who have been as wildly unpredictable as any team in the league this year. They lose three in a row, then win three in a low and finally get blown out by the Pats. So do the real Jets stand up this week? Let's find out in our week 11 NFL Picks
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6) - There is no game this week where the trends are heavily in favor of one side as this one. Teams like the Jets have covered 80% of the time in this matchup. Pick: Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1) - Games against two bad teams are always the toughest to forecast because they're so unpredictable. Case in point, in both similar historical games models, which involve 100 games... teams like these two are exactly 50-50. The similar spread model does lean toward Cleveland and taking the home team in these spots is always smart. Pick: Browns
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) - It's too bad Carolina put up such a stinker last week, because this might have been shaping up to be a mildly interesting matchup. But really, Detroit has handled bad teams this season. They've not been great against other contenders, but Carolina certainly isn't that. Pick: Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14) - This is a big line that is begging you to take the Pack. Don't fall for it. The trends almost all favor Tampa to cover here. Pick: Tampa Bay
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1) -The Bills looked awful last week in Dallas, while the Dolphins have been playing much better. The Bills are on the back end of back to back road games as well. Pick: Miami
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1) - This is essentially a pick-em, so the rule of thumb is to go with the better team (the Raiders). The trends agree in this case. Teams like Oakland have won in 72% of games with this spread. Pick: Raiders
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+7.5) - Given how inconsistent Dallas has been this year, they really don't see like a team that should be favored on the road by more than a TD, especially against a division rival. The trends here heavily favor Washington. Pick: Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7) - One of the more interesting games on the schedule this week, especially considering how bad Baltimore was last week. That said, it was a tough spot for the Ravens. Coming off a win over a big rival, they go on the road for the second straight week, to the west coast, in Seattle... Everything was against them. The trends are very split on this game, but one does jump out. Baltimore has won 64% of the time in games with a 7 point spread. Pick: Ravens
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (-1) - This is sure to be an exciting one... Of course I kid. It will probably be an awful game, but it seems like a good one to pick. Teams like the Rams have covered in nearly 70% of games with similar spreads. Pick: Rams
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) - As long as this line doesn't jump to ten, it's a great play for the 49ers. Teams like them have covered over 60% of the time. Pick: Niners
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6) - The historical and similar games models aren't real strong here, but they all agree that the Titans cover. Pick: Titans
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5) - A matchup of two of the least likeable QBs in the NFL makes this a tough game to pick a rooting interest in, but not that tough to bet. Trends are heavily in Chicago's favor. Pick: Bears
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-4.5) - The trends are interestingly split in this game. The similar games model says New York, while the similar historical games model leans toward the Eagles. Pick: Giants
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5) - This is one of those huge lines that should raise your alarm bells. The Pats played well last week, but they're still not a great play as a better than two TD favorite. Pick: KC