We went 8-5 against the spread last week, with the Eagles covering with no time left being the crowning jewel of the picks. With the Giants being three point favorites, bettors had likely turned that game off by the 4th quarter… but the Eagles would roar back to win and cover for the big road upset. The Jets also had a big road cover against the Steelers last week, but we whiffed on that one. So who is likely to be the big road winner this week? Let’s find out in our week 16 NFL picks.
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13) – This game has even gone as high as 15 in some books. That’s a huge line for an NFL game and I’d stay away from it. That said, this game does have blowout written all over it. The Panthers are arguably the worst team in the NFL going up to Pittsburgh on a short week to face an angry Steelers team who were upset by the Jets last week. They’re going to come out looking to hurt people in powder blue. Pick: Steelers
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Arizona Cardinals – It’s odd to see a five-win team as a 6-point road favorite, but the Cowboys are playing better and the Cardinals may have sealed the title of the NFL’s worst team after their loss to Carolina last week. One caution here is that Dallas has rarely played well in Arizona for whatever reason. I doubt it’ll matter this week though. Pick: Cowboys
New England Patriots (-8) at Buffalo Bills – I’m actually pleasantly surprised that they didn’t go crazy with this line. I was sure it would be at least ten. Pats struggled a bit last week and the Bills got a win, which probably helped this from going crazy. Pick: Patriots
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-2) - This is one of the tougher games to pick this week. The line suggests that the Jets are the team to take here because you’d really think this should be Bears by three. Still I like the Bears defense against Mark Sanchez in what should be a frigid Soldier Field. Pick: Bears
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns - The Art Modell bowl. Lest you forget, the Baltimore Ravens are the old Cleveland Browns teams that Art Modell took out of Cleveland and brought to Baltimore. So there’s a lot of hatred for him and that team in Cleveland which should make for a pretty crazy atmosphere. Still, the Browns haven’t shown over the last couple weeks that they have the talent to play up to a team like the Ravens. Pick: Ravens
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) – I like the Jags by a TD, but if this goes up past 7 I actually like the Skins. Pick: Jaguars, but watch that line.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) - The Titans are one of those annoying teams for bettors that you can never rely on from week to week. They’re a total Jekyll & Hyde. They played well last week, but they’re on the road against a really solid home team this time around. Pick Chiefs
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-4) – Can you believe Miami has only won once at home this season? Almost all their victories have come on the road. They may be the only team in the league with a home field disadvantage. So this is a tricky game. Still, I don’t see the Lions being really competitive in two straight road games. Pick: Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-2) - The nine-loss 49ers could actually pull into a lead in the NFC Worst in this game. These are both poor teams who got blown out last weekend, so I say just go with the home team. Pick: Rams
Houston Texans (-2) at Denver Broncos - A battle of two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Anything could happen in this game, but I’ll take Matt Schaub to outscore Tim Tebow. Pick: Texans
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders - These teams are much closer matched than you might think. I would not at all be surprised to see the Raiders knock off the Colts. Still can you take Jason Campbell over Peyton Manning? This is a tough game. Pick: Colts
San Diego Chargers (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are a bad team and the Chargers appear to be on a mission here. They should roll. Pick: Chargers
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers - No line yet as they wait to get official word that Aaron Rodgers comes back
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles – Also no line here as we again wait on Brett Favre.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2) – This game means more to the Saints than the Falcons. Atlanta has the Panthers coming to town the following week and only need one win to lock up home field. I see the Saints pulling off the upset here. Pick: Saints