Last week I went 9-6 against the spread, which is a pretty solid week if I do say so. You made money if you followed the picks. I'll pat myself on the back for the Raiders and Cowboys road covers, but I gotta express some regret for going against my better judgment and taking the Chiefs +10 at home. Yes I like the Chiefs at home and yes I think the Broncos stink, but 10 is a big number for a team like KC. Also, what was I thinking betting on Donovan McNabb to carry on his recent dominance over the Giants?
So with those lessons in mind, here are the week 14 picks.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Tennessee Titans - Right off the bat I'm going to go against my better judgment here. The way they're playing, the Colts have no business being a road favorite against anyone. Clearly this line is just saying that people are so used to betting the Colts, that that's where the money is going. So, it's telling me to go against Indy here, but I'm not going to listen. I say they take it by a field goal. Pick: Colts
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - This game is basically a pick and I actually like that people are showing the Bills some respect here. They got blown out by the Vikings last week, but that's really the first time that's happened all season. The Browns on the other hand, have actually won 3 of 5 since their bye. They're kinda like the Bills in that they're in every game, but unlike the Bills they've actually learned to win. Pick: Browns
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Carolina Panthers - To be honest, I don't know why this line is so low. This is the best team in the NFC against the worst team in the NFL. The Falcons aren't quite as good on the road as they are at home, but they're good enough to top the Panthers by more than a TD. Pick: Falcons
Green Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions - The Lions are a lot like the Bills. They keep losing, but they're always in games. They kept it close against the Bears last week in Detroit. I suspect they'll keep this one close for most of the game, but the Green Bay offense should be able to beat them by a TD. Pick: Packers
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) - It would be just like the Raiders this year to go into Jacksonville and stomp all over everything the Jags have built up over the past few weeks. That said, I don't like them in the second of back to back road games. Pick: Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) - A little while ago, I called the Carolina Panthers the worst team in the NFL. Bengals fans would probably take issue with that. The Steelers will be riding high off their Sunday night victory at the Ravens. They'll return home focused and dominate Cincy. Pick: Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at Washington Redskins - Tampa is probably going to walk into Washington and blow out the Skins. Also it's almost certain that Ronde Barber will pick off Donovan McNabb. Pick: Buccaneers
St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) - The Rams have to step out of the friendly confines of the NFC West and face a real NFL team on the road. Unfortunately that team is the defending champs. I like the Saints laying 9.5, if it nudged up 10 I might stay away. Pick: Saints
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-4) - Ugh. Why would anyone bet this game? I don't know how you could predict what's going to happen. Mike Singletary is going back to Alex Smith as his starter for this one. I'm going to say it won't this time either. Pick: Seahawks
New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago bears - I keep asking, "Is this the week Chicago gets exposed?" and they keep winning. Then again, they haven't played a team like the Patriots yet. I think the Pats go into Soldier Field and take it to the Bears. it is kind of nuts to a see a 9-3 team as a home dog though isn't it? Vegas is begging you to bet the Bears here. Pick: Patriots
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6) - I really feel like the Jets got exposed this week. They've been only one team with a winning record this season and that was the Patriots, who proceeded to smoke them in the return fixture. The Jets have really skated by beating bad teams. That said, they get a bad team at home this week. Pick: Jets
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-7) - This is a bizarre line to me. KC is a 10 point favorite against Denver last week, the Chargers get worked by the Raiders and yet they're a touchdown pick over the Chiefs? Just seems off to me. I really don't like this game at all. The Chiefs aren't very good on the road, but the Chargers are crazy inconsistent. Pick: Chargers
[Update by JasonB, 12/08/10 5:51 PM EST ] Matt Cassel just underwent an appendectomy and is expected to miss between 2-4 weeks. Obviously that completely changes this game and in fact most sports books likely won't even take action on it anymore. If you got your Chargers bet in early, good for you!
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Dallas Cowboys - The double revenge rivalry game. Dallas is playing better as of late, but they're really playing for pride. The Eagles have absolutely everything on the line and Michael Vick has put on a show every time he's been in prime time this year. I suspect he'll play well against Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles also get Asante Samuel back for this game, which changes their secondary. On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys lose Dez Bryant, probably their best WR this year, for the season. I say Eagles by a TD. Pick: Eagles