There's been some interesting movement amongst the NFL lines this week. Most notably is the tough to pick Falcons at Colts game, which opened as high as 8.5 in some places, but is now down to a TD. ESPN's Dave Tuley expects to see that actually nudge back up over TD. The Eagles blowout of the Cowboys on Sunday night seems to have made Vegas bullish on them as they opened as 6.5 point favorites against the Bears, but are now -9.
Also a trend to keep an eye on are home underdogs. Home dogs when 3-2 against the spread last week, so it's worth giving some extra thought to teams like Washington, Indy, Arizona and San Diego this week.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1) - This was a game where I felt like the Bills weren't getting enough respect when you consider how consistent they've been and how inconsistent the Jets have been. That said, the trends really do favor the Jets here. The "gut" says Bills, but the numbers (trends and simulator) say Jets. Pick: Bills
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-11.5) - Any time you see a big line like this you have to think hard about going with the underdog and in this case I think that's a smart play. The Cowboys won't be as awful as they were last Sunday, but the trends say Seattle covers here. Pick: Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (+7) - The fact that this line is only seven should tell you something. People aren't confident in this Falcons team, but obviously the Colts are terrible. Still, the similar games and historical models all favor the Colts here. Pick: Colts
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - I was surprised at how low this line was. Certainly the fact that the Dolphins were competitive last week and the Chiefs were so sloppy probably hurt it. Still, KC is a strong play here. In 25 historically similar games, teams like KC have covered 68% of the time. Pick: Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9) - This is a tough pick because the trends are really split here. The Saints were awful last week, but the smart money says they won't come unprepared for two weeks in a row and we know how good they are back in the Superdome. Bonus pick for you here, bet the under in this one. The trends are heavily in favor of the under. Pick: Saints
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+3.5) - I know this is a west coast team traveling east, which is always a tough spot, but it's a bit of a surprise to see this at only 3.5. Considering how good San Fran has been and how quickly the Redskins have fallen you'd think the Niners would be big favorites. Interestingly though, the trends are split right down the middle here and neither team has any significant edge in any of the models. Pick: 49ers
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10.5) - Generally going against double digit favorites is a good play, but the trends heavily favor a Texans cover in this one. Pick: Texans
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3) - This is a tough pick because the trends are really split and the teams are pretty evenly matched. In those cases I usually favor the home team and in this case the simulator actually does agree. Pick: Titans
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-9) - I expected this game to come out around 4 or 5 for the Raiders, but 9 is a big number given their QB situation. For all that has been written about how bad Tim Tebow is, let's not act as if Carson Palmer was any better in his first appearance. Of course, Palmer has now had a bye week to learn the playbook... The trends do favor Oakland here, but I really hate this game. Pick: Raiders
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-9) - This is another game where I don't know what the Pats have done to earn such a big line, but I was surprised to learn that the trends favor them so heavily. Teams like the Pats have covered 78% of the time in similar games. Pick: Pats
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) - Here's an exciting matchup... I actually made a bet with a friend that Kevin Kolb would have a better year than Sam Bradford. The loser turns out to be all of us because they're both terrible. The trends do favor the Cards here. Pick: Cards
Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+5.5) - Teams like the Packers playing on the road with this exact spread have covered 78% of the time. Pick: Pack
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - These teams almost always play 2-3 points games and the trends actually spell that out. In all four models I look at (similar and historical games) favor the Ravens to cover. Pick: Baltimore
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) - The trends are literally split right down the middle here and 10,000 simulations predicted an Eagles win by 9.2 points. So it's very close here. The Bears have played the Eagles really well in years passed, but those games have all been in Chicago. I'm looking at the matchup of the Eagles pass rush and the Chicago offensive line and I think that tips it. Pick: Eagles