Last week was all about the big upsets. The Giants went into Philly got a big win, the Jets lost on the road to the Raiders and of course the Patriots were shocked by the Bills. I suppose this early in a very unorthodox year, these types of fluctuation in performance are to be expected. These teams had no offseason, shortened camps, there's record numbers of rookies on teams... So it stands to reason that they'd look good one week but struggle the next. However, after this week we will be one month into the season, so those excuses are burning up quick and it's time for the preseason contenders to start showing some consistency before they become regular season pretenders.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - I like Bears a lot here. They've had a rough schedule to start the year and while Carolina has surprised some with the way they've played, they still only have one win. And while Cam Newton is off to a nice start, going on the road to play on that field in Chicago isn't going to be great for him. Pick: Bears
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) - The Bills sport the highest scoring offense in the NFL right now, but could they be in for a letdown after their big win against the Patriots? That's the fear here. Because otherwise, you'd have to say that Buffalo is the better team. For that reason I like the Bills. Pick: Bills
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1) - The trends favor the Browns quite heavily here. Teams like them have won over 70% of one point spreads and similar spreads over the last 10 years. This is one of those games where it's hard to a get real gut feeling, so I'm going to trust the trends. Pick: Browns
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - Interestingly the similar games with the same spread model heavily favors the Cowboys here. Teams like them have covered better than 70% of the time. That said, you really have to like the matchups for Detroit. Their d-line against the Dallas o-line is a huge mismatch while Calvin Johnson against whoever the Cowboys can find to try and cover him is maybe even bigger. Pick: Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) - Here are two teams that it's hard to trust with anything. The Vikings can't hold a lead and the Chiefs can't get one. Plus, the trends don't give us a lot of help either as the models are split about 50-50 as to who covers. I'll just go gut here and take the Vikes. Pick: Vikings
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (+1.5) - The Rams have been a real mess this year but they are catching the Redskins in the second of back to back road games. I think this really comes down to a bad St Louis offense being really overmatched against a really good Redskins D. Pick: Redskins
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) - The Eagles have owned the Niners in recent years both at home and on the road, but this line is high considering their terrible performance against the Giants. This will be the third straight year the two teams play and the Eagles will be starting their 3rd different QB. I think the Eagles offense gets back on track this week and the 49ers won't be able to keep up. Pick: Eagles
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) - We've got Blaine Gabbert in his second ever start against Drew Brees. Frankly, I think that the Saints by less than a TD is a bargain, even on the road. Pick: Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-3.5) - This is one of those games where the trends actually favor the Steelers to cover, but I really like the Texans. The Steelers are coming off a so-so performance on the road last week and now they're on the road again against a much better team. Pick: Texans
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (+1) - Essentially a pick here and the trends don't really tell us much. Although the Giants could be in for a bit of a letdown after their big win last week and combined with a cross country trip this is a tough spot. Larry Fitzgerald could also be in for a big day against a suspect Giants secondary. Pick: Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) -This is a tough game. It's hard to trust the Falcons at this point, but Seattle is kind of a mess. That said, the Falcons have a lot working against them. A dome team going on the road to a very tough place to play, plus they're on the back end of back to back road games. Pick: Seahawks
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5) - Big number here and surprisingly, the historically similar matchups heavily favor the Broncos to cover. In fact, teams like the Broncos have covered in over 70% similar games in the last 10 years. Pick: Broncos
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4) - This will be the second of back to back road games for the Patriots and the Raiders are better than people are giving them credit for. This isn't a high confidence pick, but I see them covering at home here. Pick: Raiders
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7) - Trends favor Miami to cover here, but I actually like the Chargers. They just seem ready to really break out while Miami seems poised to fall apart. Heading across the country seems like just the time to do it. Pick: Chargers
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The trends really favor the Jets here. They've covered in better than 58% of historically similar games. This really feels like one of those close field goal games, which means the Jets cover. Pick: Jets
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) - I really hate everything about this game. I don't really trust the Bucs to blow someone out, but then again Indy seems to have gotten worse after losing both Gary Bracket and Melvin Bullitt for the year. Plus it appears as though Curtis Painter will be starting for Kerry Collins. Pick: Colts