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Week One NFL Picks: NFL Begins In Earnest This Weekend

Week one of the NFL season kicks off tonight when the champs from two season ago travel to Lambeau field to take on last year's champs.

Week one of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night when the champs from two season ago travel to Lambeau field to take on last year's champs. It's the start of arguably the hardest to pick NFL season in years. With an extremely abbreviated offseason and record numbers of players switching teams, it's hard to tell who will have it together so early in the season. That said, we move on undaunted with our week one NFL picks.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4) -This line opened at five, but is now down to four, which I think makes the Packers a good play. The Saints, a dome team, are lucky to get the Pack so early in the season, but on the night the Packers get their rings on national TV, you have to like the home team to win by at least five. Pick: Packers

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+2.5) - We have our first home dog of the week and it's a 2010 playoff team. Much like New Orleans, the dome team here does benefit from getting their trip to Chicago before it gets frigid, but I still like the Bears to cover here. The Falcons only lost three times last year, but all were to playoff teams. The Bears are continually underrated and I think that line reflects this. Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) - Here's some must see TV... Actually, just to underscore the extreme lack of interest in this one, this game can only be seen in Ohio, unlike the other AFC North matchup PIT & BAL which can be seen in probably 70% of the country. The Browns will win this game against Andrew Luck's next team, but 6.5 is a big number for the Browns, who frankly just aren't that good. I would stay away from his game. Pick: Browns

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) - I actually think the Chiefs will take a bit of a step back this year, but not at home against the Bills. I think a win by at least a TD is a likely result. Pick: Chiefs ***

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams (+4.5) - We've got a big home dog here in the Rams as the Eagles are as expected getting a lot of money coming their way. The Rams won't be this big of a dog at home in any other game, but the Eagles really are a rough matchup for them. Go look at the Rams WRs and the Eagles CBs and tell me how the Rams throw the ball in this game? I'm taking Philly, but frankly it's not one of my favorite plays of the week. Pick: Eagles

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) - This is a great early season matchup between two young teams with suddenly high expectations. Detroit seems to be getting a bit overrated after the preseason, but Tampa really got an inflated win total from a weak schedule last year. So I think one of these teams ends up as a disappointment this year, just not entirely sure which one. I like the Bucs by a FG here. Pick: Bucs

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) - Frankly, I'm surprised the Jags are still favored here and I suspect by gametime that may not be the case. They cut starting QB David Garrard last week and are going with Luke McCown in week one. The Titans are a hard team to figure without Jeff Fisher at the help anymore, but Hasselbeck healthy at QB, Chris Johnson back, Kenny Britt... They've got more talent than Jacksonville and I see them winning outright. Pick: Titans ***

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1) - This line opened at 2.6 in favor of the Ravens and is now down to 1, so it's essentially a pick, which is good considering how close these teams always play. They've split their last four games and all have been decided by a FG. What's worse, there's no real good trend. They've each won games at the other's stadium... So really you have to go on your gut here. Pick: Ravens

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9) - Minus nine! That's what happens when Peyton Manning is listed as doubtful. Part of me thinks it's would be an interesting value proposition to put some money here on the off chance Manning shocks everyone and plays... but if we take the facts for what they are, the Texans are probably deserved favorites this big. The Colts are going to start Kerry Collins, which wouldn't be as disastrous as Curtis Painter, but the Texans pass defense might actually be respectable this year with Jonathon Joseph back there... This is a huge line and the Colts still have talent even without Manning. This is really a game I'd stay away from but... Pick: Texans

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) - This line is probably more about the doubts of bettors about Carolina and Cam Newton than confidence in Kevin Kolb and the Cards. I actually think it's kind of high. I'm confident that the Cardinals can win, but I could really see a backdoor cover or push happening here. Tough game to pick here. Pick: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers (-9) - Given how slowly the Chargers always seem to start, this line is a bit of a surprise. The Vikings should be better this season with Donovan McNabb at the helm and while they did lose talent in the form of Sidney Rice and Ray Edwards, they've still got elite players like Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen. I like them to cover here. Pick: Vikings

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) - With Tarvaris Jackson vs Alex Smith, is this the worst QB matchup we'll get all week? I honestly would not be surprised by any score in this game. Both of these teams are hard to predict, so I'm gonna say that 5.5 is a high and it ends up as a FG game. Pick: Seahawks

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3) - The Giants lost yet another defender, MLB Jonathon Goff, to a season ending injury this week so they may only field 7 or 8 guys on defense. Problem is, that might be enough to defend against Rex Grossman who "won" the epic QB competition this preseason between he and John Beck. Pick: Giants ***

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4.5) - This is the national game on Sunday night and it's a strength on strength, weakness on weakness type of matchup. I feel confident in saying that the Dallas offense and Jets defense will be good. I'm not so sure about the Dallas D or Jets O. I do think the Jets win this game at home, but I think it's close. Pick: Cowboys

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7) -The Patriots were killing people in preseason until they suddenly got whacked by the Detroit Lions. The Dolphins are a team that no one can really figure out what they're doing. They're not likely headed anywhere with Chad Henne at the helm, but they're not terrible either. This would seem like a high line for a division rival game in Miami, but the Dolphins were stunningly bad at home last year. Pick: Patriots

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3) - When the NFL resumed business in late August of this year, Kyle Orton looked like he was going to be starting his season on Monday night... in Miami. However, Tim Tebow slipped to #3 on their depth chart at QB and Denver didn't like the offers they got for Orton, so Kyle starts for the Broncos monday night. Much like that San Fran v Seattle game, nothing would surprise me here. Close game, blowout either way... Really anything could happen. So I'll go with the home team. Pick: Broncos

*** Denotes our favorite plays