This week, Hawerchuk of Arctic Ice Hockey introduced Fenwick data on his behindthenet.ca site. As a refresher, Fenwick looks at goals, saves, and missed shots and represents them as a percentage of events in favor of the team. Limiting it to tied situations eliminates score effects apparent when teams sit on a lead.
This is a huge deal as Fenwick tied data has a large predictive correlation with future goal ratio. So with that, our power rankings formula gets a makeover.
The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.
Here we go:
Eastern Conference
| This Week | Last Week |
Rationale | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 4 | The Bruins are first in the NHL thanks largely to their league-leading 1.81 five-on-five ratio. They are 8th in FenTied |
1.255 |
 |
2 | 3 |
Philadelphia moves up thanks to being 1st in the league in adjusted points per game. Their 23rd best FenTied is troublesome, however. |
1.079 |
 |
3 | 6 |
The Canadiens are 5th in five-on-five ratio and 11th in FenTied. The wins will come for them. |
1.047 |
 |
4 |
8 |
Florida may be a surprise here, but they are 5th in the league in FenTied and tied for 9th in adjusted points per game. They look like a legit playoff team. |
1.036 |
 |
5 |
2 |
The Rangers are one of the teams who lose with the new system thanks to the 26th best FenTied. |
1.026 |
 |
6 |
1 |
Washington also falls, but not because of the new formula. They are tied for 3rd in FenTied, but are 13th in five-on-five ratio. |
1.016 |
 |
7 |
5 |
The Sabres rank 21st in FenTied, suggesting they are due for a fall. |
0.981 |
 |
8 |
7 |
Toronto is definition of mediocre. They are 18th in FenTied, 16th in five-on-five ratio, and 20th in adjusted points per game. |
0.930 |
 |
9 |
9 |
The Penguins are 6th in the league in FenTied and they are getting Sidney Crosby back. Look out. |
0.929 |
 |
10 |
11 |
Winnipeg is slightly below average, really not all that worse than Toronto, but they aren't getting regulation wins. |
0.885 |
 |
11 |
12 |
The Devils are controlling the play, but they aren't scoring or winning in regulation. Interesting case. |
0.852 |
 |
12 |
10 |
Tampa Bay has a brutal FenTied, ranking 27th in the league. Yet they still get points. Same as last year? |
0.847 |
|
13 |
15 |
The Senators get out of the basement thanks to the 16th highest FenTied. |
0.825 |
 |
14 | 13 | Carolina has a terrible 0.69 five-on-five ratio and looks to be finding a spot in the bottom. |
0.754 |
|
15 | 14 | The Islanders got off to such a promising start, and still have the 22nd best FenTied, but they aren't scoring or getting points. |
0.742 |
Western Conference
| This Week | Last Week |
Rationale | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 2 |
The Blues reach the top of the power rankings thanks to the best 5-on-5 ratio and the second best FenTied. |
1.230 |
 |
2 | 1 | Detroit isn't far behind St. Louis, now they just need to get their special teams going. |
1.185 |
 |
3 |
7 |
The Sharks are 12th in FenTied, but are getting a lot of points and have a good 5-on-5 ratio. They may not be as good as they look, but they're still good. |
1.165 |
 |
4 |
5 |
Phoenix is still going strong with the 9th best FenTied. |
1.048 |
 |
5 |
6 |
The Wild have the worst FenTied in the entire league, but they have the sixth best 5-on-5 ratio. They should fall soon. |
1.007 |
 |
6 |
3 |
Chicago is the opposite of Minnesota. They have the 4th best FenTied but the 15th best five-on-five ratio. They'll improve. |
1.005 |
 |
7 |
8 |
The Predators moved up despite having the 3rd worst FenTied in the league. They continue to get points despite getting severely outshot. |
0.992 |
 |
8 |
9 |
Los Angeles is slightly below the middle of the pack, joining Toronto as the definition of mediocre. |
0.933 |
|
9 |
10 |
The Oilers aren't as good as they looked earlier, but they are no longer the laughing stock of the league, sitting 17th in FenTied. |
0.929 |
 |
10 |
11 |
Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton are all fairly similar, but Calgary is getting better shooting luck. |
0.926 |
 |
11 |
4 |
The Stars are the biggest loser here, partly because of their 25th best FenTied, but they were going to fall regardless due to their luck starting to run out. |
0.892 |
 |
12 |
12 |
Vancouver has the 7th best FenTied, so they should improve as their shooting luck gets better. |
0.886 |
 |
13 |
13 |
The Avalanche have the 13th best FenTied, but a horrible 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game marks. Who is this team? |
0.776 |
 |
14 |
15 |
Columbus gets out of the basement! Their 14th best FenTied pulled them up. |
0.713 |
 |
15 | 14 | The Ducks become the basement tenants thanks to being 29th in FenTied, 30th in five-on-five ratio, and 29th in adjusted points per game. |
0.691 |