This week, Hawerchuk of Arctic Ice Hockey introduced Fenwick data on his behindthenet.ca site. As a refresher, Fenwick looks at goals, saves, and missed shots and represents them as a percentage of events in favor of the team. Limiting it to tied situations eliminates score effects apparent when teams sit on a lead.
This is a huge deal as Fenwick tied data has a large predictive correlation with future goal ratio. So with that, our power rankings formula gets a makeover.
The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.
Here we go:
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
This Week | Last Week |
Rationale | Rating | |
---|---|---|---|---|
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1 | 2 |
The Blues reach the top of the power rankings thanks to the best 5-on-5 ratio and the second best FenTied. |
1.230 |
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2 | 1 | Detroit isn't far behind St. Louis, now they just need to get their special teams going. |
1.185 |
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3 |
7 |
The Sharks are 12th in FenTied, but are getting a lot of points and have a good 5-on-5 ratio. They may not be as good as they look, but they're still good. |
1.165 |
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4 |
5 |
Phoenix is still going strong with the 9th best FenTied. |
1.048 |
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5 |
6 |
The Wild have the worst FenTied in the entire league, but they have the sixth best 5-on-5 ratio. They should fall soon. |
1.007 |
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6 |
3 |
Chicago is the opposite of Minnesota. They have the 4th best FenTied but the 15th best five-on-five ratio. They'll improve. |
1.005 |
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7 |
8 |
The Predators moved up despite having the 3rd worst FenTied in the league. They continue to get points despite getting severely outshot. |
0.992 |
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8 |
9 |
Los Angeles is slightly below the middle of the pack, joining Toronto as the definition of mediocre. |
0.933 |
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9 |
10 |
The Oilers aren't as good as they looked earlier, but they are no longer the laughing stock of the league, sitting 17th in FenTied. |
0.929 |
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10 |
11 |
Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton are all fairly similar, but Calgary is getting better shooting luck. |
0.926 |
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11 |
4 |
The Stars are the biggest loser here, partly because of their 25th best FenTied, but they were going to fall regardless due to their luck starting to run out. |
0.892 |
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12 |
12 |
Vancouver has the 7th best FenTied, so they should improve as their shooting luck gets better. |
0.886 |
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13 |
13 |
The Avalanche have the 13th best FenTied, but a horrible 5-on-5 ratio and adjusted points per game marks. Who is this team? |
0.776 |
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14 |
15 |
Columbus gets out of the basement! Their 14th best FenTied pulled them up. |
0.713 |
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15 | 14 | The Ducks become the basement tenants thanks to being 29th in FenTied, 30th in five-on-five ratio, and 29th in adjusted points per game. |
0.691 |