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Can Jaromir Jagr Score 70 Points Next Season?

Hockey Prospectus published an article over the weekend projecting Jaromir Jagr's possible point production for the Flyers next season. Having been out of the NHL for a few years, Jagr has been playing in Russia and piling up the points while he's been there. The Russian season is shorter, but HP says that they have been able to pretty consistently predict how performance in the KHL translates to the NHL.

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The news is good for Flyers fans.

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Normally players jumping to the NHL from almost any other professional league can expect to lose at least half their scoring, but not when they jump from the KHL. In fact, recent history has shown that players retain roughly three-quarters of their goal scoring and almost all of their assists when making the leap, suggesting that Jagr has remained the NHL equivalent of a consistent 70-point scorer this entire time, as you can see by the totals at right.

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Jagr has scored .94 points per game while in Russia. Translated to the NHL next year based on how other players moving between the leagues have scored, HP projects Jagr at 67 points (26 G 41 A). I think Flyers fans would sign up for that immediately.

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While his age is not insignificant, HP also says that being 40 years old in the NHL is certainly not a death sentence. In fact, just last year 40 year old Teemu Selanne tallied 80 points in 73 games. Ten players since 2000 have scored 56 points or better at 39 or 40 years old.

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