Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans.
This week, Phoenix jumped up four spots while New Jersey moved up two.
The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.
Here we go:
Eastern Conference
| This Week | Last Week |
Rationale | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 1 | The Bruins remain in first despite going 0-1-1 last week, including a 6-0 loss to Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 99%) | 1.177 |
 |
2 | 2 |
New York is the latest team to entertain the possibility of trading for Jeff Carter. (Playoff Probability 99%) | 1.127 |
 |
3 | 3 |
The Flyers have been losing lately and Kimmo Timonen is decidedly not happy. (Playoff Probability 95%) |
1.005 |
 |
4 |
4 |
Pittsburgh saw Jordan Staal score in his return from a knee injury. (Playoff Probability 96%) | 0.980 |
 |
5 |
5 |
The Capitals are left hoping that Nicklas Backstrom can return before the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 65%) | 0.956 |
 |
6 |
6 |
Toronto is stalling and wondering if they need to make a move. (Playoff Probability 57%) | 0.937 |
 |
7 |
8 |
The Canadiens had a pretty bad first half, so it's worth looking at what went wrong. (Playoff Probability 9%) | 0.921 |
 |
8 |
9 |
Florida has a favorable schedule ahead of them, making a Southeast Division title possible. (Playoff Probability 87%) | 0.918 |
 |
9 |
7 |
The Senators are seeing coach MacLean use Daniel Alfredsson in optimal situations. (Playoff Probability 54%) | 0.914 |
|
10 |
12 |
New Jersey is wondering what will happen during their playoff push. (Playoff Probability 89%) | 0.898 |
 |
11 |
11 |
The Lightning went 1-2-1 last week, only managing a 2-1 win over Buffalo. (Playoff Probability 13%) | 0.891 |
 |
12 |
10 |
Winnipeg may be the healthiest they've been all season. (Playoff Probability 22%) | 0.874 |
 |
13 |
13 |
The Sabres have seen Ryan Miller go on a tear of late, making 7 goals in 5 games enough to get 7 points. (Playoff Probability 6%) | 0.855 |
 |
14 | 14 | Carolina went out West and lost overtime games to Anaheim and Colorado. (Playoff Probability 1%) | 0.844 |
|
15 | 15 | The Islanders aren't going to make the playoffs, so they should trade goalie Evgeni Nabokov. (Playoff Probability 6%) | 0.808 |
Western Conference
| This Week | Last Week |
Rationale | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 1 |
The Blues are in love with themselves. For good reason, actually. (Playoff Probability 99%) | 1.231 |
 |
2 | 2 | Detroit has now won 20 straight home games. Asterisk or no, that's impressive. (Playoff Probability 99%) |
1.205 |
 |
3 |
3 |
The Sharks have seen their power play regress, and why that's good. (Playoff Probability 94%) | 1.080 |
 |
4 |
4 |
Vancouver went 1-0-2 last week, splitting the two shootouts they played. (Playoff Probability 99%) | 1.051 |
 |
5 |
9 |
The Coyotes may see Jeremy Roenick as a savior of their days in Phoenix. (Playoff Probability 98.3%) |
0.965 |
 |
6 |
5 |
Chicago is reeling, but there's some simple solutions. (Playoff Probability 62%) | 0.956 |
 |
7 |
6 |
The Predators were not happy with their effort against Boston.(Playoff Probability 95%) | 0.942 |
 |
8 |
7 |
Dallas is seeing Alex Goligoski start to rack up the points, comforting with his new contract. (Playoff Probability 38%) | 0.919 |
|
9 |
8 |
The Kings may be running out of patience with Dean Lombardi. (Playoff Probability 52%) | 0.915 |
 |
10 |
10 |
Calgary is told Mikael Backlund is a bust. Calgary proceeds to explain why that is ludicrous. (Playoff Probability 42%) | 0.866 |
 |
11 |
11 |
The Wild still can't decide if they're buying or selling. Still? (Playoff Probability 24%) | 0.859 |
 |
12 |
13 |
Anaheim saw GM Bob Murray take a thinly veiled shot at Brian Burke, claiming Burke left the system in shambles. (Playoff Probability 3%) | 0.845 |
 |
13 |
12 |
The Avalanche don't expect to be very active at the deadline, setting up a fairly similar team next year. (Playoff Probability 32%) | 0.844 |
 |
14 |
14 |
Edmonton resigned Andy Sutton, presumably taking another defenseman off the trade block. (Playoff Probability 2%) | 0.814 |
 |
15 | 15 | The Blue Jackets aren't helping Ryan Johansen in his rookie year, suggesting the whole team is just miserable. (Playoff Probability 0%) | 0.740 |