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NHL Power Rankings Week 21: A Shuffle Atop the East

This week, the top four in the East shuffled amongst themselves while the Sharks continue to rank highly here but remain on the playoff bubble.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T. As you’ll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
1 2 The Bruins just passed the one year anniversary of the day Marc Savard's life changed. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.098
2 1
New York is starting to get what they paid for out of Brad Richards. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.088
3 4 The Penguins look to get Sidney Crosby back, and thoughts of Malkin/Crosby/Staal has fans excited. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.036
Flyers_medium 4
3 Philadelphia is looking at yet another college free agent, J.T. Brown. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.015
Senators_medium 5
The Senators are almost guaranteed a playoff spot, yet they still can't help looking ahead toward the draft. (Playoff Probability 95.8%) 0.959
Capitals_medium 6
6 Washington lost Mike Green to a 3 game suspension. (Playoff Probability 62.0%) 0.959
8 The Devils may have the Calder Trophy winner in Adam Henrique. (Playoff Probability 99.8%) 0.935
7 Winnipeg is starting to love Tanner Glass. It should be contagious. (Playoff Probability 30.3%) 0.913
Panthers_medium 9
9 The Panthers are leading the Southeast Division. Mock the Division, they're in 3rd in the Conference. (Playoff Probability 78.0%) 0.899
Lightning_medium 10
Tampa Bay has goaltending problems. Here are many new ways to judge exactly that. (Playoff Probability 7.6%) 0.884
12 The Sabres are spreading their difficult minutes by not letting many people take them on. (Playoff Probability 18.0%) 0.874
Carolina went 1-1-2 in four road games last week. And they improved on their ranking. (Playoff Probability 1.2%) 0.861
Maple_leafs_medium 13
The Maple Leafs are once again looking at a top-10 draft pick. That could be okay. (Playoff Probability 5.9%) 0.859
Canadiens_medium 14 14 Montreal is already preparing for yet another GM. (Playoff Probability 0.1%) 0.845
Islanders_medium 15 15 The Islanders are watching MIchael Grabner take fewer shots. That's slightly troubling. (Playoff Probability 0.4%) 0.798

Western Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
Red_wings_medium 1 1 The Red Wings need to remind themselves that Ken Holland knows what he's doing. You should remind yourself too. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.223
Blues_medium 2 2 St. Louis is playing really, really well right now. So much so that they have to keep an even keel. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.203
Canucks_medium 3
3 The Canucks are struggling with complacency and expectations. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.053
Sharks_medium 4
4 San Jose is struggling to stay in the playoff picture and Jeremy Roenick is still calling out Patrick Marleau. (Playoff Probability 68.9%) 0.992
Predators_medium 5
5 The Predators are getting excited about former first round pick Alexander Radulov possibly coming over to the NHL. (Playoff Probability 99.6%)
Blackhawks_medium 6
Chicago is hoping to get Jonathan Toews back soon and it's looking like they will. (Playoff Probability 94.4%) 0.961
Coyotes_medium 7
7 The Coyotes have been getting great goaltending from Mike Smith all year, and he was named one of the NHL's three stars of February. (Playoff Probability 61.3%) 0.960
Stars_medium 8
Dallas got a boost as their Captain Brendan Morrow returned from injury. (Playoff Probability 91.2%) 0.957
Kings_medium 9
The Kings have seen their goals for spike and their goals against plummet in the small-sample-size of post-Johnson for Carter. (Playoff Probability 31.3%) 0.912
Avalanche_medium 10
Colorado has a chance to sneak into the playoffs, but it won't be easy. (Playoff Probability 34.4%) 0.893
The Flames also have a chance to make the playoffs. It's an even smaller chance, but it's there. (Playoff Probability 18.4%) 0.883
Anaheim is without Corey Perry after Stephane Robidas hit him into the boards awkwardly. (Playoff Probability 0.3%) 0.879
Oilers_medium 13
The Oilers celebrate year two - that's it?? - of their rebuilding plan. (Playoff Probability 0%) 0.821
Wild_medium 14
Minnesota has a clear goal: "Don't win, but don't look stupid losing." (Playoff Probability 0.3%) 0.784
Blue_jackets_medium 15 15 The Blue Jackets are considering their options with the first overall pick, including... trading it? (Playoff Probability 0%) 0.742