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NHL Power Rankings Week 20: New York and Detroit Make Their Case

Apologies for missing last week, moving out of state threw a wrench in my plans and internet wasn’t available immediately.

This week, the biggest movers were Winnipeg and Colorado while the Rangers overtook Boston for first in the East.

Included at the end of each blurb is the playoff probability provided by Fear the Fin, based on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick first published by Broad Street Hockey’s Eric T. As you’ll see, the Score-Adjusted Fenwick diverges rather strongly in some spots from what our power ranking formula shows, as some teams are much better when leading or trailing by one than they are when tied, and vice versa.

The new formula still includes adjusted points per game (regulation wins count for two while games going to overtime count for one) and five-on-five goal ratio, but it now includes the fenwick tied percentages. All three are weighted to give more importance to Fenwick tied, then to five-on-five ratio, and lastly to adjusted points per game.

Here we go:

Eastern Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
Rangers_medium 1 2 The Rangers overtook Boston and they did it without trading Chris Kreider for Rick Nash. More on Kreider. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.128
Bruins_medium 2 1
Boston lost Tuukka Rask to a groin injury and replaced him with Marty Turco. Ouch. (Playoff Probability 99.8%) 1.103
Flyers_medium 3 3
The Flyers are now without defensemen Kimmo Timonen and Andrej Meszaros, on top of losing Chris Pronger. Not good.(Playoff Probability 98.6%) 1.011
Penguins_medium 4
Pittsburgh is no longer subject to the "But you have Matt Cooke" retort. Seriously. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.010
Senators_medium 5
The Senators need to figure out what to do in goal, with two rookies and Alex Auld. (Playoff Probability 86.6%) 0.945
Capitals_medium 6
Washington was wondering if they had turned a corner on their possession metrics. It doesn’t look like it. (Playoff Probability 41.6%) 0.937
Jets_medium 7
The Jets have an awful penalty kill. A look at why. (Playoff Probability 41.9%) 0.912
Devils_medium 8
New Jersey is seeing some funny things happen with their shooting percentages this year. (Playoff Probability 96.7%) 0.905
Panthers_medium 9
The Panthers went 2-2 last week included an embarrassing 7-0 loss in Winnipeg. (Playoff Probability 73.1%) 0.904
Lightning_medium 10
Tampa Bay is wondering how their Keith Aulie acquisition will play out. (Playoff Probability 20.3%) 0.896
Maple_leafs_medium 11
The Maple Leafs are hoping new coach Randy Carlyle brings with him a new line structure. (Playoff Probability 16.2%) 0.888
Sabres_medium 12
Buffalo is dreaming of actually making the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 21.3%) 0.887
Hurricanes_medium 13
The Hurricanes enjoyed themselves a Casino Night for charity. (Playoff Probability 1.7%) 0.860
Canadiens_medium 14 7 Montreal scored three goals in three games, losing all three last week. Just awful. (Playoff Probability 0.2%) 0.837
Islanders_medium 15 15 The Islanders are hoping their guys can show who they are and how they fit in for the future. (Playoff Probability 2.1%) 0.806

Western Conference

This Week Last Week Rationale
Red_wings_medium 1 2
The Red Wings are really good at even strength, but they’re also really good on special teams. Shocker, I know. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.231
Blues_medium 2 1 St. Louis has a Canada-hater in David Backes. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.181
Canucks_medium 3
The Canucks are wondering where the Sedin twins have gone. (Playoff Probability 100%) 1.068
Sharks_medium 4
San Jose is getting a great season out of Joe Thornton, possibly the best season out of him. (Playoff Probability 81.8%) 1.007
Predators_medium 5
The Predators saw GM David Poile make some big moves for them at the deadline. Nashville’s serious. (Playoff Probability 97.4%)
Blackhawks_medium 6
Chicago is seeing Patrick Kane step up for them when they most need him. (Playoff Probability 88.3%) 0.967
Coyotes_medium 7
The Coyotes beat Vancouver then lost to Columbus. While it doesn’t make sense, it’s not a reason to worry. (Playoff Probability 72.6%) 0.961
Stars_medium 8
Dallas needs to avoid another late-season collapse. (Playoff Probability 60.9%) 0.952
Kings_medium 9
The Kings saw Mike Richards assist on a Jeff Carter goal. Not once, but twice. (Playoff Probability 54.9%) 0.926
Avalanche_medium 10
Colorado might actually, just maybe, could make the playoffs. (Playoff Probability 26.2%) 0.877
Ducks_medium 11
The Ducks are somehow still thinking playoffs. (Playoff Probability 2.0%) 0.876
Flames_medium 12
Calgary is questioning whether they should re-sign head coach Brent Sutter. (Playoff Probability 13.5%) 0.866
Oilers_medium 13
The Oilers are making their fans wonder if they’ll win a Cup in their lifetime. (Playoff Probability 0%) 0.833
Wild_medium 14
Minnesota is asking if this current team is their worst ever. Remember when they were in 1st place? (Playoff Probability 2.4%) 0.805
Blue_jackets_medium 15 15 The Blue Jackets are still trying to recover from the trade deadline, where their team somehow got even worse. (Playoff Probability 0%) 0.731